Global News Post: Early Warning

HEALTH: Predicting the next zoonotic pandemic

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<span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS'; font-size: small;">Photo: <a href="http://www.thelancet.com/">The Lancet</a><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS'; font-size: small;">Next big pandemic most likely to break out in orange-red<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS'; font-size: small;">zones on this map according to one projection</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS"; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">LONDON (IRIN) - Chances are high the world’s next
pandemic will be a disease originating in animals, like 60 percent of current
documented human infectious diseases. Even after hundreds of thousands of human
deaths from zoonoses (diseases transmitted from animals to humans), experts say
there is still limited information about how zoonoses are spread or just how to
predict the next outbreak.<br />
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“There is no question of whether we will have another zoonotic pandemic,” wrote
Stephen Morse, a public health professor at <st1:placename w:st="on">Columbia</st1:placename>
<st1:placetype w:st="on">University</st1:placetype> in <st1:state w:st="on">New
 York</st1:state>, in a November 2012 <a href="http://www.thelancet.com/series/zoonoses" target="_blank">series on
zoonoses</a> in the <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">UK</st1:place></st1:country-region>
medical journal, The Lancet. “The question is merely when, and where, the
next pandemic will emerge.”<br />
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Despite <a href="http://www.ted.com/talks/nathan_wolfe_hunts_for_the_next_aids.html" target="_blank">virus hunters’</a> best efforts, no zoonotic pandemic has,
thus far, been predicted before it infected humans.<br />
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“The continuing effect of the HIV/AIDS pandemic is a reminder of the risk of
zoonotic pathogens spreading from their natural reservoirs to man,” wrote
William Karesh from <st1:state w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">New York</st1:place></st1:state>’s
EcoHealth Alliance in the Lancet series. The NGO, formerly known as Wildlife
Trust, works to prevent the outbreak of emerging diseases by preserving
biodiversity. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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An estimated 1.8 million people <a href="http://www.unaids.org/en/media/unaids/contentassets/documents/unaidspublication/2011/jc2216_worldaidsday_report_2011_en.pdf" target="_blank">die annually from AIDS</a>, caused by HIV, which originated in
primates. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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“What is far less broadly appreciated is that none of the approaches commonly
used to search for potential new human pathogens… probably would have
identified simian immunodeficiency virus (SIV) as a potential risk to man,”
said Karesh.<br />
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<b>Early warning?<o:p></o:p></b></span></div>
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The US Agency for International Development launched its <a href="http://www1.usaid.gov/press/releases/2009/pr091021_1.html" target="_blank">Emerging
Pandemic Threats Programme</a> in late 2009 to build an early warning
system to detect and reduce the impacts of zoonotic diseases.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS';">But there are
thousands of species of birds and animals that each host different diseases;
where do you concentrate efforts? A virologist may focus on diseases easily
spread from animal relatives, like chimpanzees, while a social scientist points
out how rare contact is between humans and chimpanzees and focuses, instead, on
poultry, with which people live and work in close quarters worldwide.</span></div>
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Between 2003 and 5 November 2012, 608 laboratory-confirmed human cases of
infections from H5N1 bird flu were reported to the <a href="http://www.who.int/influenza/human_animal_interface/Influenza_Summary_IRA_HA_interface_05November12.pdf" target="_blank">World Health Organization</a> from 15 countries, of which
359 died. </div>
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Disease hunters are homing in on emerging disease “hotspots”, mammal-rich areas
with high, changing population densities. A group of experts led by <st1:placename w:st="on">Columbia</st1:placename> <st1:placetype w:st="on">University</st1:placetype>’s
Morse are creating a disease map, in which <st1:country-region w:st="on">Rwanda</st1:country-region>
and <st1:country-region w:st="on">Burundi</st1:country-region> are bright red,
as is the Indonesian <st1:placetype w:st="on">island</st1:placetype> of <st1:placename w:st="on">Java</st1:placename>, one of the world’s most densely populated
islands, and <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Egypt</st1:place></st1:country-region>’s
Nile Delta. Other potential sites for future outbreaks include north <st1:country-region w:st="on">India</st1:country-region> and <st1:country-region w:st="on">Bangladesh</st1:country-region>,
northern and western <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">China</st1:country-region></st1:place>,
and - to a lesser extent - more densely populated parts of western Europe and
along the west African coast.</div>
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<b>Urbanization</b></div>
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“Urbanization has boosted zoonoses’ outbreak risks as people get closer to
animals,” Sarah Schlesinger, a scientist from <st1:state w:st="on">New York</st1:state>’s
<st1:place w:st="on"><st1:placename w:st="on">Rockefeller</st1:placename> <st1:placetype w:st="on">University</st1:placetype></st1:place>, told IRIN on the sidelines
of a recent HIV vaccine conference.</div>
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Cities are growing, with roads and industries penetrating previously
uninhabited wildlife habitats; some 3.3 billion people live in urban areas
(cities and their outskirts), according to the UN. By 2030, the world’s urban
population is expected to exceed five billion, with 80 percent located in the
developed world. In places where animal “hosts” to disease start to disappear
(as their habitats shrink), pathogens are finding a new home in human
hosts.</div>
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Some 800 million people worldwide are engaged in urban agriculture, according
to the <a href="http://www.scribd.com/doc/67301608/Urban-Agriculture-for-Sustainable-Poverty-Alleviation-and-Food-Security" target="_blank">World Bank</a>, which identifies peri-urban livestock as a
fast-growing sector that produces 34 percent of the world’s meat and nearly 70
percent of its eggs.</div>
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The Nairobi-headquartered International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI) has
pointed out how urban livestock and agriculture can breed disease in some of
the world’s most crowded places. In a <a href="http://mahider.ilri.org/bitstream/handle/10568/24453/FactSheet_urbanzoonoses_oct2012.pdf?sequence=5" target="_blank">recent survey</a> in Dagoretti, one of eight districts of <st1:country-region w:st="on">Kenya</st1:country-region>’s capital, <st1:city w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Nairobi</st1:place></st1:city>, the institute found up to 11 percent
of households were affected by cryptosporidiosis, a diarrhoeal disease caused
by a pathogen found in cattle, raw milk, soil, vegetables and contaminated water.</div>
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Changing harvests  may be another contributor to the spread of zoonoses.
In the southwestern <st1:country-region w:st="on">USA</st1:country-region>
where El Niño (rising sea surface temperatures across the central and eastern <st1:place w:st="on">Pacific Ocean</st1:place>) dumped more rain, vegetation growth
increased, which then attracted more rats. Hantavirus is not fatal in rats -
which carry the disease - but is in humans who became infected through the
rats.</div>
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The interplay of biology, ecology and sociology make forecasting the next
pandemic difficult, say experts in the Lancet series who call for boosting
cooperation between experts (<a href="http://www.irinnews.org/Report/96590/HIV-AIDS-Breaking-science-silos-to-find-a-vaccine" target="_blank">often working in silos</a>) to meet the “huge, and rising”
threat of zoonoses.</div>
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HEALTH: Predicting the next zoonotic pandemic

Photo: The Lancet Next big pandemic most likely to break out in orange-red zones on this map according to one projection LO...

PAKISTAN: Sectarian Violence Slipping Out of Control in Balochistan

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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><div align="center" class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 9.0pt;">Photo: <a href="http://www.irinnews.org/photo/"><span style="color: windowtext; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">Kamila Hyat/IRIN</span></a><o:p></o:p></span></div><div align="center" class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 9.0pt;">Relatives of missing persons stage <o:p></o:p></span></div><div align="center" class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 9.0pt;">a protest in Balochistan<o:p></o:p></span></div><div align="center" class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: center;"><br />
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</tbody></table><span class="apple-style-span"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">QUETTA,Pakistan (IRIN) - Ethnic and religious minorities in Pakistan’s southwestern province of Balochistan have faced increasing intimidation and violence since 2009, according to a recent</span></span><span class="apple-converted-space"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;"> </span></span><span class="apple-style-span"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">fact-finding mission</span></span><span class="apple-converted-space"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;"> </span></span><span class="apple-style-span"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">by the Human Rights Commission of Pakistan (HRCP).<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span class="apple-style-span"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;"> </span></span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;"><br />
<span class="apple-style-span">“Settlers” i.e. people who have settled in the province and are not of Baloch ethnicity (a term used by Balochi nationalists even for people whose ancestors came to the region before the Pakistani state was created in 1947) are being targeted.</span><br />
<span class="apple-style-span"> </span><br />
<span class="apple-style-span">Heavy locks on two empty houses in a residential suburb of Quetta, the provincial capital, stand as a testimony to what is happening - in this case the occupants chose to vacate their properties quietly in the dead of night.</span><br />
<span class="apple-style-span"> </span><br />
<span class="apple-style-span">“These persons were `settlers’ in Balochistan, from the Punjab. They were good people; we had known them for years, but they had to leave because it is no longer safe for people from other provinces to live in Balochistan,” a neighbour who asked not to be named, told IRIN.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span class="apple-style-span"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;"> </span></span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;"><br />
<span class="apple-style-span">With violence increasing in 2010, the central government informed the country’s Senate that</span><span class="apple-converted-space"> </span><span class="apple-style-span">100,000</span><span class="apple-converted-space"> </span><span class="apple-style-span">people had fled Balochistan. According to HRCP, thousands more have fled since then. At least 2,000 “settler” children have been taken out of school by their parents since 2011, the HRCP report says.</span><br />
<span class="apple-style-span"> </span><br />
<span class="apple-style-span">About half of Balochistan’s 7.8 million people are non-Baloch; they live mainly in Quetta and Pakhtoon-dominated areas.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span class="apple-style-span"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;"> </span></span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;"><br />
<span class="apple-style-span">“My family has lived in Quetta since the 1930s. It is the only home I know. But things are getting too dangerous for anyone who is non-Baloch,” said Khawar Jhandro, an ethnic Sindhi.</span><br />
<span class="apple-style-span"> </span><br />
<span class="apple-style-span">The teacher, 40, said he had already moved his family to Karachi, as “I was terrified about the safety of my children who were asked their ethnicity even at school.”</span><br />
<span class="apple-style-span"> </span><br />
<span class="apple-style-span">The problem, according to Tahir Hussain Khan, a Quetta-based lawyer and human rights activist, is tied to the nationalist struggle by Baloch groups, which began in the 1950s but intensified after the 2006 killing of a key Baloch nationalist leader Nawab Akbar Bugti.</span><br />
<span class="apple-style-span"> </span><br />
<span class="apple-style-span">Baloch Baloch, a spokesman for the nationalist Baloch Republican Army, an armed militia fighting for autonomy of the region, told IRIN over the telephone: “We believe Balochistan should be mainly for the Baloch people and not be taken over by those who have moved in from outside and settled here… Balochistan’s resources have been taken away by the Punjab, aided by the central government.”</span><br />
<span class="apple-style-span"> </span><br />
<span class="apple-style-span">HRCP says underdevelopment is one of the factors driving the grievances. According to official statistics, the province is the country’s poorest with the lowest literacy rate (30 percent).</span><span class="apple-converted-space"> <o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span class="apple-style-span"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;"> </span></span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;"><br />
<span class="apple-style-span">According to the</span><span class="apple-converted-space"> </span><span class="apple-style-span">South Asian Terrorism Portal</span><span class="apple-converted-space"> </span><span class="apple-style-span">which bases its data on media reports and is run by the New Delhi-based Institute for Conflict Management, 711 persons, including civilians, nationalist militants and personnel from security forces were killed in</span><span class="apple-converted-space"> </span><span class="apple-style-span">Balochistan</span><span class="apple-converted-space"> </span><span class="apple-style-span">in 2011, and 347 the previous year. HRCP reported the discovery of 57 bodies of people who had gone missing from various parts of the province in 2012 alone.</span><br />
<span class="apple-style-span"> </span><br />
<span class="apple-style-span">Sectarian violence has also started to target the</span><span class="apple-converted-space"> </span><span class="apple-style-span">Hazara, a Shiite minority. Sardar Saadat Ali, chief of the Hazara community in Balochistan, told IRIN: “Our protests are ignored. The extremists targeting us on a sectarian basis just escape, scot-free.”<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span class="apple-style-span"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;"> </span></span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;"><br />
<strong><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">Balochs also targeted<o:p></o:p></span></strong></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span class="apple-style-span"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;"> </span></span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;"><br />
<span class="apple-style-span">Even the Balochi nationalists themselves have become a target and many have gone missing. “There are at least 500 or more missing persons in the province,” Baloch Baloch told IRIN. According to the HRCP report, the disappearance of 198 people has been officially recorded since 2000.</span><span class="apple-converted-space"> <o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span class="apple-style-span"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;"> </span></span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;"><br />
<span class="apple-style-span">A</span><span class="apple-converted-space"> </span><span class="apple-style-span">2010 report</span><span class="apple-converted-space"> </span><span class="apple-style-span">by Human Rights Watch said the Frontier Corps (FC), a paramilitary organization commanded by Pakistan’s military, was behind many of the disappearances.</span><br />
<span class="apple-style-span"> <o:p></o:p></span></span></div><table align="right" border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="MediumShading2" style="border-collapse: collapse; border: none; margin-bottom: 3.75pt; margin-left: 6.0pt; margin-right: 6.0pt; margin-top: -.75pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext 2.25pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext 2.25pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-table-anchor-horizontal: column; mso-table-anchor-vertical: paragraph; mso-table-bspace: 6.0pt; mso-table-left: right; mso-table-lspace: 8.25pt; mso-table-rspace: 8.25pt; mso-table-top: middle; mso-table-tspace: 1.5pt; mso-yfti-tbllook: 1184; width: 220px;"><tbody>
<tr style="mso-yfti-firstrow: yes; mso-yfti-irow: -1; mso-yfti-lastrow: yes;">   <td style="background: black; border-bottom: solid windowtext 2.25pt; border-left: none; border-right: none; border-top: solid windowtext 2.25pt; mso-background-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-element-anchor-horizontal: column; mso-element-anchor-vertical: paragraph; mso-element-frame-hspace: 8.25pt; mso-element-frame-vspace: 1.5pt; mso-element-left: right; mso-element-top: middle; mso-element-wrap: around; mso-element: frame; mso-height-rule: exactly; mso-yfti-cnfc: 517; text-align: justify;"><b><span style="color: white; font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-no-proof: yes; mso-themecolor: background1;"><v:shapetype coordsize="21600,21600" filled="f" id="_x0000_t75" o:preferrelative="t" o:spt="75" path="m@4@5l@4@11@9@11@9@5xe" stroked="f">    <v:stroke joinstyle="miter">    <v:formulas>     <v:f eqn="if lineDrawn pixelLineWidth 0">     <v:f eqn="sum @0 1 0">     <v:f eqn="sum 0 0 @1">     <v:f eqn="prod @2 1 2">     <v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelWidth">     <v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelHeight">     <v:f eqn="sum @0 0 1">     <v:f eqn="prod @6 1 2">     <v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelWidth">     <v:f eqn="sum @8 21600 0">     <v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelHeight">     <v:f eqn="sum @10 21600 0">    </v:f></v:f></v:f></v:f></v:f></v:f></v:f></v:f></v:f></v:f></v:f></v:f></v:formulas>    <v:path gradientshapeok="t" o:connecttype="rect" o:extrusionok="f">    <o:lock aspectratio="t" v:ext="edit">   </o:lock></v:path></v:stroke></v:shapetype><v:shape alt="''" id="Picture_x0020_1" o:spid="_x0000_i1026" style="height: 13.5pt; mso-wrap-style: square; visibility: visible; width: 17.25pt;" type="#_x0000_t75">    <v:imagedata o:title="''" src="file:///C:\Users\GHAZAN~1\AppData\Local\Temp\msohtmlclip1\01\clip_image001.jpg">   </v:imagedata></v:shape></span></b><span style="color: white; font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-themecolor: background1;">My family   has lived in Quetta since the 1930s. It is the only home I know. But things   are getting too dangerous for anyone who is non-Baloch<b><span style="mso-no-proof: yes;"><v:shape alt="''" id="Picture_x0020_2" o:spid="_x0000_i1025" style="height: 13.5pt; mso-wrap-style: square; visibility: visible; width: 17.25pt;" type="#_x0000_t75">    <v:imagedata o:title="''" src="file:///C:\Users\GHAZAN~1\AppData\Local\Temp\msohtmlclip1\01\clip_image002.jpg">   </v:imagedata></v:shape></span><o:p></o:p></b></span></div></td>  </tr>
</tbody></table><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span class="apple-style-span"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">The central government is concerned that it is losing control of the region. The country’s top court,</span></span><span class="apple-converted-space"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;"> </span></span><span class="apple-style-span"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">hearing a case</span></span><span class="apple-converted-space"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;"> </span></span><span class="apple-style-span"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">regarding law and order in Balochistan brought before it by NGOs and families of the missing, has repeatedly ordered the provincial government to take action. So has the prime minister. But these interventions, backed by the military muscle of the FC are seen by some as interfering in local affairs.</span></span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;"><br />
<span class="apple-style-span"> </span><br />
<span class="apple-style-span">“Basically, the FC has seized all control, follows its own plans and does not allow us to function,” a senior police officer in Quetta, who asked not to be named, told IRIN.</span><br />
<span class="apple-style-span"> </span><br />
<span class="apple-style-span">“The military has intervened too often in the affairs of Balochistan, handicapping civilian rule,” said I.A. Rehman, secretary-general of the HRCP. Balochistan has a long history of military intervention against those fighting for more autonomy, dating back to the 1950s.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span class="apple-style-span"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;"> </span></span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;"><br />
<strong><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">Fear</span></strong><span class="apple-converted-space"><b> </b></span><br />
<span class="apple-style-span"> </span><br />
<span class="apple-style-span">The result of this administrative disarray is fear. Tens of thousands across Balochistan are affected.</span><span class="apple-converted-space"> <o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span class="apple-style-span"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;"> </span></span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;"><br />
<span class="apple-style-span">“It is unsafe to go out of the house after 4 or 5pm. I, in fact, try not to let my college-going sons leave the house at any time, except for their studies, because I am afraid they may be `picked up’ as nationalists or get caught up in some terrorist incident,” said Shaista Bibi, a mother of three - and an ethnic Baloch.</span><br />
<span class="apple-style-span"> </span><br />
<span class="apple-style-span">An ethnic Pakhtoon mother was just as fearful. “We will have to leave here soon. It is no longer safe for my four young children,” said Ameera Gul, 30, who had moved to Balochistan from Khyber Pakhtoonkhwa Province 10 years ago. The family is now planning to leave as soon as it can.</span></span><span style="background: white; font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div></div>

PAKISTAN: Sectarian Violence Slipping Out of Control in Balochistan

Photo: Kamila Hyat/IRIN Relatives of missing persons stage a protest in Balochistan QUETTA,Pakistan (IRIN) - Ethnic and religious mino...

UN Alarmed Over Sharp Rise in Grain Prices

<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on"><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="direction: ltr; text-align: justify; unicode-bidi: embed;"><span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><b><i>By VOA News</i></b></span><span style="font-size: small;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="direction: ltr; text-align: justify; unicode-bidi: embed;"><span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="direction: ltr; text-align: justify; unicode-bidi: embed;"><span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">A 20-percent spike in maize and wheat prices in just the past three weeks is raising concerns with the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO)</span><span dir="RTL" lang="AR-SA" style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">.</span><span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="direction: ltr; text-align: justify; unicode-bidi: embed;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="direction: ltr; text-align: justify; unicode-bidi: embed;"><span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">FAO economist Shukri Ahmed said the increase in price was sharp and sudden. He said that until May, experts were hoping for a huge increase in worldwide maize production</span><span dir="RTL"></span><span dir="RTL" lang="AR-SA" style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><span dir="RTL"></span>.</span><span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="direction: ltr; text-align: justify; unicode-bidi: embed;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="direction: ltr; text-align: justify; unicode-bidi: embed;"><span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">The FAO Global Information and Early Warning System issued a bulletin Friday saying that drought in the United States is helping push up prices, while hot, dry weather in the Black Sea region is affecting wheat</span><span dir="RTL"></span><span dir="RTL" lang="AR-SA" style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><span dir="RTL"></span>.</span><span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="direction: ltr; text-align: justify; unicode-bidi: embed;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="direction: ltr; text-align: justify; unicode-bidi: embed;"><span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Ahmed says the price increase will put pressure on national budgets in countries that depend on imports for their domestic food needs</span><span dir="RTL"></span><span dir="RTL" lang="AR-SA" style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><span dir="RTL"></span>.</span><span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="direction: ltr; text-align: justify; unicode-bidi: embed;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="direction: ltr; text-align: justify; unicode-bidi: embed;"><span dir="RTL"></span><span dir="RTL" lang="AR-SA" style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><span dir="RTL"></span>"</span><span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Northern African countries, Middle Eastern countries, some countries even in Asia and Africa, who actually depend for more than 30 to 70 percent of their consumption needs on imports," said Ahmed</span><span dir="RTL"></span><span dir="RTL" lang="AR-SA" style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><span dir="RTL"></span>.</span><span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="direction: ltr; text-align: justify; unicode-bidi: embed;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="direction: ltr; text-align: justify; unicode-bidi: embed;"><span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Add the threat of rising food prices to the list of troubles in Syria</span><span dir="RTL"></span><span dir="RTL" lang="AR-SA" style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><span dir="RTL"></span>.</span><span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="direction: ltr; text-align: justify; unicode-bidi: embed;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="direction: ltr; text-align: justify; unicode-bidi: embed;"><span dir="RTL"></span><span dir="RTL" lang="AR-SA" style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><span dir="RTL"></span>"</span><span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Near Eastern countries, whether it is Iraq or Syria or others, actually import from the international market. So, if these prices persist as they are, it will have implications on the countries that import much," said Ahmed</span><span dir="RTL"></span><span dir="RTL" lang="AR-SA" style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><span dir="RTL"></span>.</span><span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="direction: ltr; text-align: justify; unicode-bidi: embed;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="direction: ltr; text-align: justify; unicode-bidi: embed;"><span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Ahmed said that price increases will strain national budgets in countries that depend on imported grain, forcing them to make difficult choices.<o:p></o:p></span></div></div>

UN Alarmed Over Sharp Rise in Grain Prices

By VOA News A 20-percent spike in maize and wheat prices in just the past three weeks is raising concerns with the United Nations Food and...

KENYA: Vanishing Fish Income Forces Livelihood Switch

<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on"><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh3jfdK9eN2oOKbG0iqTwavqxHPa2PI48JrVNaP0YGNXXPsqx72i_MHwrmjfRbq-VI0tPq4UiXZm1nLKgT_WrdlsMuySBmlumuQBtbGNjNfESb7n2Yhjt8RPa4esynugZ5iWi4pxnCWTMg/s1600/201206050744140398.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="251" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh3jfdK9eN2oOKbG0iqTwavqxHPa2PI48JrVNaP0YGNXXPsqx72i_MHwrmjfRbq-VI0tPq4UiXZm1nLKgT_WrdlsMuySBmlumuQBtbGNjNfESb7n2Yhjt8RPa4esynugZ5iWi4pxnCWTMg/s320/201206050744140398.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><div align="center" class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: center;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;">Overpopulation and overfishing have forced fishing<o:p></o:p></span></div><div align="center" class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: center;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;">communities to look elsewhere for their income (file photo)<o:p></o:p></span></div><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif; font-size: 9pt; line-height: 115%;"></span>Photo:<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span><a href="http://www.irinnews.org/photo/"><span style="color: black; text-decoration: none;">Kenneth Odiwuor/IRIN</span></a><o:p></o:p></div></td></tr>
</tbody></table><div style="text-align: justify;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">KISUMU  (IRIN) - Joseph Obiero, a 35-year-old father of seven, has been a fisherman on Lake Victoria since he was a teenager, but a decline in earnings in recent years means his family can no longer depend solely on fishing. </span></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;"><br />
</span></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">"When I was a boy helping my father in the lake, he could get five baskets full of fish in a night; now I struggle to get even one basket. I get very little money from fishing these days - there is no fish," he told IRIN. </span></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;"><br />
</span></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">"These days… I go to Kisumu town [the largest town in western Kenya's Nyanza Province] where I use my 'tuk tuk' [three-wheeled motorcycle taxi] to ferry people for money. If I don’t do that, I can't even take my children to school… I used to save money in the bank, but now it is not easy to feed or clothe my family. It is a struggle to make ends meet," he said. </span></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;"><br />
</span></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">When the fishermen return with boats almost empty after a night of fishing on the lake, fish trader Anastasia Magero has to supplement her income by selling vegetables. </span></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;"><br />
</span></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">"Selling vegetables doesn't bring enough money. I used stay at the nearby market centre where I used to pay rent, but I can't do that anymore - I have to walk to the beach from my rural home," she said. "With reduction in fish, I am getting to know what poverty means."</span></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">An estimated 65,000 people have already lost some income due to reduced earnings from fishing, and another 100,000 could be affected in the next two years, according to Nyanza's provincial planning office. </span></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;"><br />
</span></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">The Ministry of Fisheries Development says the fisheries sector supports about 80,000 people directly and about 800,000 indirectly. An estimated 60 percent of households in western Kenya rely on fish for food and as a source of income. </span></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;"><br />
</span></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">"Our statistics show that many people who used to sell their goods to fishermen can't do so because they have quickly lost their purchasing power... As fishermen lose jobs, others who depend on them to buy their stuff also do the same," Dickson Mutwi, senior planning officer in Nyanza, told IRIN. </span></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;"><br />
</span></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;"><b>Lake under pressure </b></span></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;"><br />
</span></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">Experts say rising population and overfishing are deepening poverty for millions of residents around Lake Victoria, the world's second largest fresh water lake. "Population explosion around the lake means many people turn to the lake and also destroy the environment around it, and in just a matter of years these people will experience poverty and hunger on a large scale," warned Charles Mboya, a fisheries lecturer at Western Kenya's Maseno University. "International and local demand for fish and its products is on the increase against a backdrop of reducing fish stocks, which might lead to a vicious struggle for it. We might witness fish wars soon," he said. </span></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;"><br />
</span></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">The ministry notes that cross-border fish and trade conflict is one of the industry's challenges; an estimated 3.5 million people depend on the lake for their livelihood, either directly or indirectly in Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda, the three countries that share the lake (Kenya’s share of the shoreline is 6 percent). </span></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;"><br />
</span></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">In 2009 a diplomatic row broke out between Kenya and Uganda over fishing rights on the tiny disputed island of Migingo, which is near a rich breeding ground for Nile perch. </span></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;"><br />
</span></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">In addition to overfishing, the effects of climate change - including prolonged droughts and increased lake salinity - are also contributing to the reduction in fish stocks. "Reducing fish catch is not just a matter of overfishing but also climate change... There is increased salinity and acidification of water and this destroys the natural habitats of fish," Paul Obade, a researcher at the Kenya Marine and Fisheries Research Institute, told IRIN. </span></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;"><br />
</span></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">"The biggest threat to Lake Victoria is the unsustainable use of its waters and the resources in it; excessive fishing devoid of any measures to replenish what is being used has seen fish diminish very fast, and particularly Nile perch," said Mboya.</span></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;"><br />
</span></div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #333333;"><b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">Support for fish farming </span></b></span><br />
<div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">"It is important to have alternative ways to ensure that not all our fish resources come from the lakes, and for that reason the government is promoting fish farming as an alternative sources of food and income," said Okumu Makogola, an official at the Fisheries Ministry. </span></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;"><br />
</span></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">The government has started a number of measures to boost fish production and provide employment to fishing communities; to date, 48,000 fish ponds have been constructed in160 constituencies across the country, creating 120,000 jobs, according to government officials. </span></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;"><br />
</span></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">At Dunga Fishermen Cooperative Society in Kisumu, local fishermen working on an International Labour Organization project are breeding thousands of fish which they later release into the lake. The cooperative is also discouraging fishermen from using nets that trawl smaller fish and deplete species. </span></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;"><br />
</span></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">"Through aquaculture, we have cages where we raise fish inside the lake, where they breed. Today we have some 20 cages each carrying 2,000 fish. We will breed more, and we will spread this initiative to other 285 fish landing beaches," said Maurice Ochieng, head of the cooperative. </span></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;"><br />
</span></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">The cooperative is also discouraging fishermen from using nets that trawl smaller fish and deplete species. "The use of chemicals to catch fish is also increasing but we have started to help the police arrest such people," said Ochieng. </span></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div></div>

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The Middle East's "invisible refugees"

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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjQ59woorRPCTm_Z28lDikknkTCkpQxpBmfLJengEu8Sq_VuWiw-a86Rf7AJlcJ9CksaLNLLcJugjfRl7Dfz8ir1Jbejq1i7Pw8_8yZI0Fl20JKNrqJ4n6GtOvrM1uMycC7u38wRMvayQ8/s1600/200804073.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="268" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjQ59woorRPCTm_Z28lDikknkTCkpQxpBmfLJengEu8Sq_VuWiw-a86Rf7AJlcJ9CksaLNLLcJugjfRl7Dfz8ir1Jbejq1i7Pw8_8yZI0Fl20JKNrqJ4n6GtOvrM1uMycC7u38wRMvayQ8/s400/200804073.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium;"><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: white; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; font-family: 'Trebuchet MS'; font-size: 8pt;">Photo: <a href="http://www.irinnews.org/photo"><span style="color: windowtext; text-decoration: none;">Phil Sands/IRIN</span></a><o:p></o:p></span></div><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium;"><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: white; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; font-family: 'Trebuchet MS'; font-size: 8pt;">Elena Fiddian-Qasmiyeh argues Palestinians can become “internally displaced refugees”.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium;"><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: white; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; font-family: 'Trebuchet MS'; font-size: 8pt;"> Many became stuck at this border camp when they tried to flee violence in <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Iraq</st1:country-region></st1:place><o:p></o:p></span></div><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium;"><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: white; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; font-family: 'Trebuchet MS'; font-size: 8pt;">after the 2003 invasion, but were denied access to <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Syria</st1:place></st1:country-region><o:p></o:p></span></div></td></tr>
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<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><st1:city w:st="on"><span style="background: white; font-family: "Trebuchet MS";">DUBAI</span></st1:city><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: white; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; font-family: 'Trebuchet MS';"> (IRIN) - Among the migrants who found themselves caught up in <st1:country-region w:st="on">Libya</st1:country-region> during last year's war was a group of people whom one <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:placetype w:st="on">University</st1:placetype> of <st1:placename w:st="on">Oxford</st1:placename></st1:place> researcher calls "invisible": refugees who travel to third countries for work or better education.</span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="background: white; font-family: "Trebuchet MS";">Wedged between violence, politics, overlapping identities and restrictive definitions, these "refugee-migrants" or "refugee-students" are often overlooked and under-protected, according to Elena Fiddian-Qasmiyeh, a lecturer in forced migration at <st1:city w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Oxford</st1:place></st1:city>'s Refugee Studies Centre. <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="background: white; font-family: "Trebuchet MS";">"Certain displaced populations have been hyper-visible whilst others have effectively been rendered invisible to (and by) the international community," she writes in an article soon to be published by the International Journal of Refugee Law, called Invisible Refugees and/or Overlapping Refugeedom? Protecting Sahrawis and Palestinians Displaced by the 2011 Libyan Uprising. An earlier version of her paper was recently published by the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) as part of its New Issues in Refugee Research Series. <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="background: white; font-family: "Trebuchet MS";">The conflict in Libya has highlighted potential gaps in the protection of Palestinian refugees who have migrated to a third country and raised complex questions about who should protect them - and how - in the case of crisis. It is a question of increasing relevance as the situation in <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Syria</st1:country-region></st1:place>,home to half a million Palestinian refugees, becomes more unstable. <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b><span style="background: white; font-family: "Trebuchet MS";">Palestinians targeted <o:p></o:p></span></b></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="background: white; font-family: "Trebuchet MS";">Though some estimates are as low as 30,000, the Palestinian Authority estimates there were up to 70,000 Palestinian migrants or refugees - the line between them is blurry - in Libya when hostilities broke out in February 2011 between supporters of Libya's leader Muammar Gaddafi and armed rebels trying to oust him from power. <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="background: white; font-family: "Trebuchet MS";">Some Palestinians were specifically targeted - their homes were ransacked and people disappeared - in the rebel capital <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:city w:st="on">Benghazi</st1:city></st1:place> and elsewhere, by both sides in the conflict, Fiddian-Qasmiyeh said. Those working in the civil service or studying at military colleges were seen to be close to the regime. <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="background: white; font-family: "Trebuchet MS";">Gaddafi's use of Palestinian mercenaries in the 1970s and 1980s contributed to the perceived affiliation. Meanwhile, others were targeted because they refused to join pro-regime forces, according to news reports. <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="background: white; font-family: "Trebuchet MS";">While sub-Saharan migrants left the country en masse during the hostilities, and other countries scrambled to get their citizens out, hundreds of Palestinians were unable to flee the violence in <st1:country-region w:st="on">Libya</st1:country-region> - often turned back at the border because <st1:country-region w:st="on">Egypt</st1:country-region>, <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Tunisia</st1:country-region></st1:place>, and their former host countries did not recognize their travel documents, Fiddian-Qasmiyeh said. Many of those who "chose" to stay in <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Libya</st1:country-region></st1:place>, she added, did not really have the choice. <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="background: white; font-family: "Trebuchet MS";">"Where would we go?" asked Fatima, a Palestinian community leader who has lived in <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Libya</st1:country-region></st1:place> for 30 years. "We have no place to go back to." <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="background: white; font-family: "Trebuchet MS";">After the fall of the capital <st1:city w:st="on">Tripoli</st1:city>, many Palestinians were evicted by force from their homes, given to them by the former government, <st1:place w:st="on">Fatima</st1:place> said. Hundreds of others displaced by heavy fighting in the Gaddafi strongholds of Sirte and Bani Walid came to <st1:city w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Tripoli</st1:place></st1:city> and are now homeless, she said. But <st1:country-region w:st="on">Libya</st1:country-region> remained their best option: "We don't have a country except <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:city w:st="on">Palestine</st1:city></st1:place>, and we can't go back there... <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Libya</st1:country-region></st1:place>, with its war and difficulties, is still better than the other countries." <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="background: white; font-family: "Trebuchet MS";">"That notion of choice and the desire to stay in a context that is so insecure is essentially one of being between a rock and a hard place," said Fiddian-Qasmiyeh. <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b><span style="background: white; font-family: "Trebuchet MS";">Evacuations <o:p></o:p></span></b></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="background: white; font-family: "Trebuchet MS";">According to UNHCR, only a few thousand Palestinians in pre-war <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Libya</st1:country-region></st1:place> were registered as refugees under the 1951 Geneva Convention. Hundreds of others were offered "complimentary protection" by UNCHR - a recognition that they were stateless, could not be returned, and required humanitarian protection. <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="background: white; font-family: "Trebuchet MS";">Still others came to study through Libyan scholarship programmes. <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="background: white; font-family: "Trebuchet MS";">The vast majority, though, were migrants or skilled labourers who came from Gaza, the West Bank or other Palestinian refugee-hosting countries in the region - Syria, Lebanon and Jordan - with or without a contract and/or regular status. Many have lived in <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Libya</st1:country-region></st1:place> for decades or were born there. <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="background: white; font-family: "Trebuchet MS";">During the conflict, the International Organization for Migration (IOM) helped evacuate 179 Palestinians from dangerous cities to <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:city w:st="on">Benghazi</st1:city></st1:place>, which was more stable. Many of them decided to stay in <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Libya</st1:country-region></st1:place> either because they had relatives there, had found jobs, or had faith the economy would pick up once the situation in the country stabilized, IOM spokesperson Jean-Philippe Chauzy told IRIN. <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="background: white; font-family: "Trebuchet MS";">But others went on to Salloum, a no man's land along the Libyan-Egyptian border, where they waited to be resettled, he said. <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi3DqjoIw7sue5hxwVYOaqPW7MclQPRVfQOzM1nIhGxKGBP3Nk_MLGtfzspWR-mUzlmsVQx2BjE_JX9yLmaank3V0RsbnKF6Gk3oQKV2T6lQF1Xs_fAxZ66tAr34fAybkxrRrsQ50gA888/s1600/201106060832340988.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="394" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi3DqjoIw7sue5hxwVYOaqPW7MclQPRVfQOzM1nIhGxKGBP3Nk_MLGtfzspWR-mUzlmsVQx2BjE_JX9yLmaank3V0RsbnKF6Gk3oQKV2T6lQF1Xs_fAxZ66tAr34fAybkxrRrsQ50gA888/s640/201106060832340988.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium;"><i><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: white; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; font-family: 'Trebuchet MS'; font-size: 8pt;">Photo: <a href="http://www.unhcr.org/cgi-bin/texis/vtx/home" target="_blank"><span style="color: windowtext; text-decoration: none;">UNHCR</span></a><o:p></o:p></span></i></div><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium;"><i><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: white; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; font-family: 'Trebuchet MS'; font-size: 8pt;">Elena Fiddian-Qasmiyeh argues Palestinians who fled <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Libya</st1:place></st1:country-region> during the war for this camp in<o:p></o:p></span></i></div><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium;"><st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on"><i><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: white; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; font-family: 'Trebuchet MS'; font-size: 8pt;">Tunisia</span></i></st1:place></st1:country-region><i><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: white; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; font-family: 'Trebuchet MS'; font-size: 8pt;"> should be considered “double-refugees” UNHCR assisted 1,581 Palestinians stranded at<o:p></o:p></span></i></div><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium;"><i><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: white; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; font-family: 'Trebuchet MS'; font-size: 8pt;">Salloum to travel to Gaza, through the Rafah border crossing, the agency's deputy regional representative in<o:p></o:p></span></i></div><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium;"><i><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: white; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; font-family: 'Trebuchet MS'; font-size: 8pt;">Egypt, Elizabeth Tan, told IRIN. Only those with valid travel documentation could cross, she said.</span></i></div></td></tr>
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</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="background: white; font-family: "Trebuchet MS";">Still, entry into <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Egypt</st1:country-region></st1:place> was difficult, even for those Palestinians who carried ID, due to long-standing restrictive policies towards Palestinian mobility, another humanitarian official said. <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="background: white; font-family: "Trebuchet MS";">Palestinians attempting to leave <st1:country-region w:st="on">Libya</st1:country-region> through <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Tunisia</st1:country-region></st1:place> also faced complications, though they were often resolved once brought to UNHCR's attention, the official said. More than a dozen of those Palestinians who made it across are currently living in Choucha Camp on the Tunisian side of the border, said Emmanuel Gignac, current UNHCR representative in <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Libya</st1:country-region></st1:place>. <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="background: white; font-family: "Trebuchet MS";">"The options and potential durable solutions available to Palestinians in <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Libya</st1:country-region></st1:place> and the region seem to be very strained, to say the least," Fiddian-Qasmiyeh wrote in her paper. Here are some of the reasons why: <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b><span style="background: white; font-family: "Trebuchet MS";">Refugees versus migrants <o:p></o:p></span></b></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="background: white; font-family: "Trebuchet MS";">Palestinians suffer from "overlapping refugeedoms", Fiddian-Qasmiyeh argues. They are refugees to begin with, having fled or been expelled from their land after the birth of Israel in 1948, or in the subsequent war of 1967, settling in Gaza, the West Bank, Syria, Jordan or Lebanon, before eventually travelling to Libya. <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="background: white; font-family: "Trebuchet MS";">But most Palestinians in Libya are not considered refugees there, as they would be in Syria, Jordan or Lebanon, both because they came as skilled labourers, but also because the Libyan government historically welcomed them as "brothers" - considering them "Arab citizens residing in Libya" rather than as refugees. <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="background: white; font-family: "Trebuchet MS";">So when conflict broke out in 2011, they found themselves in a tricky position. <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="background: white; font-family: "Trebuchet MS";">They could not return to their country of origin (<st1:city w:st="on">Palestine</st1:city>) nor to their country of habitual residence (for example, <st1:country-region w:st="on">Syria</st1:country-region>) in order to flee the violence and insecurity in <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Libya</st1:country-region></st1:place>. And yet they were not registered as refugees inside the country either. <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="background: white; font-family: "Trebuchet MS";">"Their `voluntary' presence there problematizes mainstream conceptualizations of 'refugeehood'," Fiddian-Qasmiyeh wrote. Even if the vast majority of Palestinians in <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Libya</st1:country-region></st1:place> have not applied for asylum, many of them are de-facto refugees because they meet the definition's criteria, she said. <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="background: white; font-family: "Trebuchet MS";">Thus, she argues, they should be considered "internally stuck refugees" or "internally displaced refugees" within <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Libya</st1:country-region></st1:place>, and if they are able to get out, as "double refugees". <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="background: white; font-family: "Trebuchet MS";">She says a more appropriate model is one of overlapping and multiple refugeehoods, where refugees who use their sponsoring agency (e.g. UNHCR or UNRWA - the UN agency tasked with providing assistance, protection and advocacy for registered <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:city w:st="on">Palestine</st1:city></st1:place> refugees) to find jobs or better education are not at risk of losing their refugee label, and the international protection that accompanies it. <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="background: white; font-family: "Trebuchet MS";">But UNHCR says the distinction has little practical importance. <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="background: white; font-family: "Trebuchet MS";">Palestinians who do not register as refugees in <st1:country-region w:st="on">Libya</st1:country-region> would nevertheless receive assistance from UNHCR if they were in need, said Arafat Jamal, deputy representative of UNHCR in <st1:country-region w:st="on">Jordan</st1:country-region>, who led a three-month emergency team in <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Libya</st1:country-region></st1:place> during the hostilities. <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="background: white; font-family: "Trebuchet MS";">"Palestinians remain refugees whether they come here for economic reasons or not," Gignac told IRIN. "You [only] lose [your refugee status] the day you return home for good or you get integrated and get citizenship from another country." <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b><span style="background: white; font-family: "Trebuchet MS";">Politicization <o:p></o:p></span></b></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="background: white; font-family: "Trebuchet MS";">Palestinians in <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Libya</st1:country-region></st1:place> were often used as political pawns, with Gaddafi threatening to, or indeed expelling, thousands of Palestinians over the years as a means of protesting against peace initiatives with which he disagreed and drawing attention to the Palestinians' inability to return to their homeland. In 1995, many Palestinians were forcibly taken to the border, and then stuck in a <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:placetype w:st="on">camp</st1:placetype>  <st1:placename w:st="on">Gaddafi</st1:placename></st1:place> named "The Return Camp" to make his point. <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="background: white; font-family: "Trebuchet MS";">"He would campaign for increased access for a group and then expel them when it was in his interest," said Emanuela Paoletti, a researcher on migration in <st1:country-region w:st="on">Libya</st1:country-region> and author of The Migration of Power and North-South Inequalities: The Case of Italy and <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Libya</st1:country-region></st1:place>. <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="background: white; font-family: "Trebuchet MS";">Technically, there is no protection gap. If you're a Palestinian in <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Libya</st1:country-region></st1:place>, you do fall under UNHCR. It shouldn't be an issue mandate-wise or legal-wise. But in practice, Palestinians being so political and all these sensitivities being around them, if we apply our mandate which includes [certain] solutions, there are issues.Gaddafi's ad-hoc recruitment of migrants, including Palestinians, into the country, meant that their status was often irregular. Depending on their classification, Palestinians fall under different jurisdictions - UNHCR; UNRWA; IOM; host governments; the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO, the recognized representative organization of the Palestinian people) - or none at all, sometimes leaving them without a guarantor. <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="background: white; font-family: "Trebuchet MS";">"Who will give me my rights?" asked Fatima, the Palestinian in <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Libya</st1:country-region></st1:place>. <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b><span style="background: white; font-family: "Trebuchet MS";">Evacuated where? And by whom? <o:p></o:p></span></b></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="background: white; font-family: "Trebuchet MS";">"Where Palestinian refugees should, could, or might want to be safely evacuated to, and by whom is a... complex issue," Fiddian-Qasmiyeh writes. "Can the international community either expect, or indeed responsibly allow, Palestinians to `return' to <st1:city w:st="on">Gaza</st1:city>, the refugee camps in <st1:country-region w:st="on">Lebanon</st1:country-region>, or the explosive situation in <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Syria</st1:country-region></st1:place>?" <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="background: white; font-family: "Trebuchet MS";">Despite vulnerability for Palestinians across the region, Arab states have resisted permanent resettlement solutions outside of the Middle East out of a fear that they would jeopardize the Palestinian right to return to their original homeland, putting the collective goal to return at loggerheads with the individual's best interests of safety. <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="background: white; font-family: "Trebuchet MS";">But resettlement remains an option, current UNHCR representative in Libya Gignac said, albeit a sensitive one. Palestinian refugees in <st1:country-region w:st="on">Iraq</st1:country-region> who tried to flee the violence there after the 2003 <st1:country-region w:st="on">US</st1:country-region> invasion and were refused entry at the Jordanian border were eventually resettled in <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Brazil</st1:country-region></st1:place> after being stranded in the Rweished border camp for years. <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="background: white; font-family: "Trebuchet MS";">"Technically, there is no protection gap," he said. "If you're a Palestinian in <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Libya</st1:country-region></st1:place>, you do fall under UNHCR. It shouldn't be an issue mandate-wise or legal-wise. But in practice, Palestinians being so political and all these sensitivities being around them, if we apply our mandate which includes [certain] solutions, there are issues. They are not always wanted...Palestinians themselves have internalized this notion and feel guilty about integrating in countries because they feel they lose the right of return... that they have somehow betrayed the cause," Gignac added. <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="background: white; font-family: "Trebuchet MS";">As far as UNHCR is concerned, a refugee never loses the right to return to his or her homeland, even if citizenship in another country is acquired. Still, Fiddian-Qasmiyeh told IRIN the Libyan example shows that theory and practice can diverge, raising many questions about the real options available to Palestinian "refugee-migrants". <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="background: white; font-family: "Trebuchet MS";">"We do need to take the protection needs seriously. That requires that conversation [about gaps and solutions] takes place." <o:p></o:p></span></div></div>

The Middle East's "invisible refugees"

Photo: Phil Sands/IRIN Elena Fiddian-Qasmiyeh argues Palestinians can become “internally displaced refugees”. Many became stuck at this...