Analysis: How real are Myanmar’s reforms?

<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on"> <table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;"><tbody> <tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhg9uTLDCXncGdHQIvlZUtjxqxW-EJu70wzH7bKmjwS58pTWIURPtpXFPG-F4hMMuSOoZrbySS2g2MS9VkjEPOndIt3LKlRijDpBJt4lBER1m2vFuOC4aM8MvKG2vZctuZF_GSpdeaQrz0/s1600/201210311502060404.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhg9uTLDCXncGdHQIvlZUtjxqxW-EJu70wzH7bKmjwS58pTWIURPtpXFPG-F4hMMuSOoZrbySS2g2MS9VkjEPOndIt3LKlRijDpBJt4lBER1m2vFuOC4aM8MvKG2vZctuZF_GSpdeaQrz0/s1600/201210311502060404.jpg" /></a></td></tr> <tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal"> <span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS"; font-size: 10.0pt;">Photo: <a href="http://www.irinnews.org/film" target="_blank"><span style="color: windowtext; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">IRIN Film</span></a> <o:p></o:p></span></div> <div align="center" class="MsoNormal"> <span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS"; font-size: 10.0pt;">Fighting continues in <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:placename w:st="on">Kachin</st1:placename> <st1:placetype w:st="on">State</st1:placetype></st1:place><o:p></o:p></span></div> </td></tr> </tbody></table> <br /> <div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"> <st1:city w:st="on"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS";">LONDON</span></st1:city><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS";"> (IRIN) - The visit of <st1:country-region w:st="on">US</st1:country-region> President Barack Obama to <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Myanmar</st1:place></st1:country-region> on 19 November has renewed international interest in the country’s democratic reforms, but also skepticism about their impact on the lives of ordinary Burmese.<br /> <br /> Since <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Myanmar</st1:place></st1:country-region>’s reform-minded President Thein Sein came to office in March 2011, hundreds of political prisoners have been released, freedom of assembly has been allowed, media censorship has eased, and the country’s cabinet has been reshuffled.<br /> <br /> “Ministers regarded as conservative or underperforming were moved aside, and many new deputy ministers appointed. There are now more technocrats in these positions and the country has its first female minister,” Jim Della-Giacoma, <st1:place w:st="on">South East Asia</st1:place> project director for the International Crisis Group (ICG), told IRIN.<br /> <br /> But analysts and observers argue that economic hardship, ongoing ethnic conflicts and a history of media censorship will prove more serious challenges to reform in this former pariah state.<br /> <br /> According to an ICG report entitled <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Myanmar</st1:place></st1:country-region>: Storm Clouds on the Horizon, much of the government’s attention will need to be focused on controlling the country’s multiple internal ethnic conflicts - a real threat to national stability.<br /> <br /> “Containing and resolving the inter-communal conflict that has engulfed <st1:placename w:st="on">Rakhine</st1:placename> <st1:placetype w:st="on">State</st1:placetype>, and reaching a ceasefire in <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:placename w:st="on">Kachin</st1:placename> <st1:placetype w:st="on">State</st1:placetype></st1:place>, are the government’s main immediate problems,” said the 12 November report.<o:p></o:p></span></div> <div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"> <span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS";"><br /> <b>Economic hardship<o:p></o:p></b></span></div> <div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"> <span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS";"><br /> While the headline-grabbing democratic reforms are welcome, resulting in millions of dollars in international development and humanitarian assistance, many believe they fail to address the economic hardships of <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Myanmar</st1:place></st1:country-region>'s 58 million people.<o:p></o:p></span></div> <div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"> <span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS";"><br /> Maung Zarni, founder of the Free Burma Coalition and a fellow at the London School of Economics, says Thein Sein’s reforms “are largely geared towards creating a `late developmental state’ along the lines of <st1:country-region w:st="on">Vietnam</st1:country-region> and <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">China</st1:place></st1:country-region>… Sadly, the West and the rest alike are choosing to overlook the apparent pitfalls of <st1:country-region w:st="on">Myanmar</st1:country-region>'s reforms, ignoring the cries of the wretched of a new <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Myanmar</st1:place></st1:country-region>.”<br /> <br /> Sein Win, managing editor of New Delhi-based Mizzima News, (founded by <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Myanmar</st1:place></st1:country-region> exiles), agrees. “Change is happening in the upper levels of government... but the lives of the people are largely the same as before,” he said.<br /> <br /> And while there are high hopes that the recent easing of international sanctions will change things, <st1:country-region w:st="on">Myanmar</st1:country-region> remains one of the poorest countries in <st1:place w:st="on">Southeast Asia</st1:place>.<br /> <br /> Ordinary people see little tangible improvement in their day-to-day lives, and inflation is having an adverse effect on the lives of many Burmese.<br /> <br /> According to the UN’s most recent Integrated Household Living Conditions Assessment, the average proportion of total household budget spent on food is 68 percent (74 percent for the poorest 30 percent of the population).<br /> <br /> Almost one third of the country’s population lives below the poverty line, according to the World Bank, which recently approved a US$245 million development package to the country.<br /> <!--[if !supportLineBreakNewLine]--><br /> <!--[endif]--><o:p></o:p></span></div> <div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"> <span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS";">“We want the people of <st1:country-region w:st="on">Myanmar</st1:country-region> and the poor in particular to see the reform can lead to real benefits,” said Kanthan Shankar, the World Bank’s country manager for <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Myanmar</st1:country-region></st1:place>.<o:p></o:p></span></div> <div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"> <span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS";"><br /> <b>Internal conflict<o:p></o:p></b></span></div> <div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"> <b><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS";"> </span></b><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS";"><br /> But the path to reform will be difficult given long-standing ethnic conflicts, many of which date back to independence from <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Britain</st1:place></st1:country-region> in 1948, analysts say.<br /> <br /> While the government over the past year has forged a number of tentative ceasefire agreements with many non-state armed groups which have been fighting for greater autonomy in the east, fighting in <st1:country-region w:st="on">Myanmar</st1:country-region>’s northern <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:placename w:st="on">Kachin</st1:placename> <st1:placetype w:st="on">State</st1:placetype></st1:place> between government forces and the Kachin Independence Army (KIA), continues unabated.<o:p></o:p></span></div> <div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"> <span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS";"><br /> Since the collapse of a 17-year-old ceasefire in June 2011, some 75,000 people have been displaced and humanitarian needs are growing, reports the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA).<br /> <br /> At the same time, more than 100,000 people, nearly all Rohingyas, have been displaced in western <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:placename w:st="on">Rakhine</st1:placename> <st1:placetype w:st="on">State</st1:placetype></st1:place>, after inter-communal violence between ethnic Rakhine Buddhists and Rohingya Muslims erupted in June.<br /> <br /> The conflict is a major test for the Thein Sein government, say activists, who are calling on Obama to make it clear that the attacks on the Rohingya need to stop if the government wants to avoid renewed international sanctions.<br /> <br /> “This is crunch time because <st1:country-region w:st="on">Burma</st1:country-region>’s failure to contain sectarian violence in Arakan [Rakhine] State and hold accountable those responsible calls into question the Burmese government’s stated goal of becoming a rights-respecting, multi-ethnic state,” said Brad Adams, <st1:place w:st="on">Asia</st1:place> director at Human Rights Watch (HRW).<br /> <br /> According to HRW, Burmese security forces have restricted the access of international humanitarian agencies to the area, while aid workers say international donors are failing to deliver.<o:p></o:p></span></div> <div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"> <span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS";"><br /> <b>Upcoming elections<o:p></o:p></b></span></div> <div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"> <span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS";"><br /> And then there is the future role of the National League for Democracy (NLD) party and its iconic leader Aung San Suu Kyi, who have been on the frontline of <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Myanmar</st1:place></st1:country-region>’s fight for democratic reform for decades.<br /> <br /> Political leaders have conflicting views about how power should be shared under the constitution as well as after the 2015 election; while many believe what is needed now is moral leadership to calm tension and seek compromises if divisive confrontation is to be avoided.<br /> <br /> An NLD landslide “may not be in the best interests of the party or the country, as it would risk marginalizing three important constituencies: the old political elite, the ethnic political parties and the non-NLD democratic forces. If the post-2015 legislatures fail to represent the true political and ethnic diversity of the country, tensions are likely to increase and fuel instability. The main challenge the NLD faces is not to win the election, but to promote inclusiveness and reconciliation,” the ICG report says.<br /> <br /> The NLD could support developing a system that would give a greater say in politics to marginalized minority groups under the current “first past the post” system, says ICG.<br /> <br /> Alternatively, the government could form an alliance with other parties, particularly with ethnic parties, and agree not to compete against them in certain electorates.<br /> <br /> “Finally, the government could support an interim `national unity’ candidate for the post-2015 presidency. This would reassure the old guard, easing the transition to an NLD-dominated political system. Critically, this option could also build support for the constitutional change required to allow Aung San Suu Kyi to become president,” says ICG.<br /> <br /> <b>“Window dressing”<o:p></o:p></b></span></div> <div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"> <span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS";"><br /> Although Thein Sein has spearheaded unprecedented change in <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Myanmar</st1:place></st1:country-region>, some critics remain cynical about his motives for allowing Aung San Suu Kyi to run for election.<br /> <br /> “The government is using her image as a democracy icon to promote and protect their way of reform. Their strategy is one of using your enemy's good name to reach your own objective,” says Sein Win of Mizzima News.<br /> <!--[if !supportLineBreakNewLine]--><br /> <!--[endif]--><o:p></o:p></span></div> <div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"> <span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS";">The impetus behind the government’s democratic reforms, he adds, goes beyond just promoting foreign trade.<br /> <br /> Some accuse the government of carrying out “window-dressing” reforms to please Western governments and enable the lifting of sanctions.<br /> <br /> “The dictatorship hurt the nation's pride. But they also want to lead the change. There will be less electoral fraud in 2015, but at the same time they will be smarter and will effectively use their political framework to weaken opposition. Of course, monitoring from the UN and international community is essential,” Sein Win adds.<br /> <br /> He believes that Western countries can help <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Myanmar</st1:place></st1:country-region> by permanently lifting sanctions, which proved to be extremely harsh on the majority of the non-political classes.<br /> <br /> Derek Tonkin from the NGO Network <st1:country-region w:st="on">Myanmar</st1:country-region> says that sanctions are potentially a valuable diplomatic weapon, noting, however, that over the past two decades they damaged <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Myanmar</st1:place></st1:country-region>’s economic development and badly affected the lives of ordinary Burmese.<br /> <br /> <b>New press and social freedoms<o:p></o:p></b></span></div> <span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-US;"><br /> Meanwhile, Mark Farmener, director of the London-based Burma Campaign <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">UK</st1:place></st1:country-region> describes the reforms to date as “top down and skin deep”.<br /> <br /> Censorship laws have not been repealed, though how they have been applied has been changed, he said, adding that while there is currently more freedom for certain subjects to be reported, others, such as ethnic issues, remain banned. “Media are still not allowed to criticize the government,” he said.<br /> <br /> Sein Win agrees: “I haven't seen any reports by Burmese journalists exploring the how and why about what happened in the conflict between Buddhist Rakhine and Muslim Rohingya communities… Will the government and local authority tolerate it if someone exposes the truth? Will the concerned communities tolerate someone's independent reporting on the conflict? I don't think so.”<br /> <br /> According to a recent report entitled Virtuality, Perception and Reality in <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Myanmar</st1:place></st1:country-region>’s Democratic Reform by the Geneva Centre for Security Policy (GCSP), self-censorship continues as many journalists are unsure what they can write about without fear of government reprisal.<br /> <br /> The report says internal factions in the government are delaying reforms: “There is an internal power struggle [in the government], at minimum between the government and the military and potentially between the president and his supporters and potentially with more hardline factions in the government.”<br /> <br /> “The long-term outlook is not positive,” Farmener warns. “There are more civil liberties in the cities but these are not guaranteed in law, and human rights abuses have actually increased in the past year. However, the changes so far have been enough to persuade the international community to rush to relax pressure and normalize relations.”<br /> <br /> He said 2016 would be a critical year for <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Myanmar</st1:place></st1:country-region>. “That’s when a new parliament dominated by the NLD will push for genuine constitutional change, and the military will either agree or block it.”<br /> </span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><br /> <!--[if !supportLineBreakNewLine]--><br /> <!--[endif]--></span></div>

Analysis: How real are Myanmar’s reforms?

Photo:  IRIN Film Fighting continues in Kachin State LONDON (IRIN) - The visit of US President Barack Obama to Myanmar on 19...

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Palestinian Issue No Longer Dominates Israeli Election

<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on"> <br /> <div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"> <br /></div> <div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"> <br /></div> <div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"> <span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS";">News analysis by Adam Gonn<o:p></o:p></span></div> <div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"> <br /></div> <div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"> <st1:city w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS";">JERUSALEM</span></st1:place></st1:city><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS";"> (Xinhua) - When Israelis head to the polls on Jan. 22 to elect a new parliament, the economy is expected to be the main issue. The shift in focus to domestic issues means that the Israeli-Palestinian relations, which has been the dominated issue for the last 20 years, has fallen out of focus.<o:p></o:p></span></div> <div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"> <br /></div> <div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"> <span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS";">"It's (the Palestinian issue) not completely out of the agenda but at the moment there is a sense that nothing can be done about it, a sense of frustration and a sense that maybe (it's) better not to talk about," Professor Itzhak Galnoor, of The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, told Xinhua on Thursday. <o:p></o:p></span></div> <div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"> <br /></div> <div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"> <span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS";">"But the topic is there because of what happened on a daily basis in the south," Galnoor said, referring to the near daily clashes between Palestinian militants in <st1:city w:st="on">Gaza</st1:city> and <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Israel</st1:place></st1:country-region>.<o:p></o:p></span></div> <div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"> <br /></div> <div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"> <span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS";">The focus on the situation in and around <st1:city w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Gaza</st1:place></st1:city> marks a significant change in the definition of what the Palestinian question means to Israelis. While in the past and especially during the 1990s and early 2000, the main issue was the negotiations for a permanent peace deal with the Palestinian National Authority (PNA) and Fatah based in Ramallah.<o:p></o:p></span></div> <div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"> <br /></div> <div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"> <span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS";">However, with the second intifada or uprising from 2000 to 2005 with suicide bombings in major Israeli cities and the Israeli disengagement from <st1:city w:st="on">Gaza</st1:city> in August 2005, <st1:city w:st="on">Gaza</st1:city>, not the <st1:place w:st="on">West Bank</st1:place> has come to be the focal point.<o:p></o:p></span></div> <div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"> <br /></div> <div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"> <span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS";">When Hamas in 2007 routed forces loyal to the PNA from Gaza, the situation changed further as there are two Palestinian authorities, Gaza ruled by Hamas and the West Bank under Fatah.<o:p></o:p></span></div> <div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"> <br /></div> <div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"> <span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS";">Galnoor said that the general question of peace with the Palestinian is dormant but not completely absent, and as the campaign progress he predicted there will be more and more attention given to the issue.<o:p></o:p></span></div> <div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"> <br /></div> <div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"> <span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS";">"First of all because the prime minister is going to talk a lot about <st1:country-region w:st="on">Iran</st1:country-region> and once one talks about <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Iran</st1:place></st1:country-region> there will be questions about foreign affairs and when one talks about foreign affairs the Palestinian issue will come up," he said, referring to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.<o:p></o:p></span></div> <div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"> <br /></div> <div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"> <span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS";">Galnoor noted that the shift towards a political agenda that is more focused on domestic issues about the economy and society isn't completely unheard of in Israeli politics.<o:p></o:p></span></div> <div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"> <br /></div> <div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"> <span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS";">However, with economic and social issues being given more attention, it also means that the traditional division in Israeli politics where a party was defined as right-wing or left-wing based on their stand on the peace talks with the Palestinians has been blurred.<o:p></o:p></span></div> <div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"> <br /></div> <div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"> <span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS";">Shelly Yehimovich, the current leader of Rabin's Labor Party, has said that while she supports a two-state solution, she intends to campaign mainly on internal issues.<o:p></o:p></span></div> <div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"> <br /></div> <div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"> <span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS";">"But still I wouldn't dismiss the foreign affairs and security issue altogether, it will come back in the campaign as we progress, " Galnoor said.<o:p></o:p></span></div> <div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"> <br /></div> <div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"> <span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS";">Dr. Amal Jamal, of <st1:placename w:st="on">Tel</st1:placename> <st1:placename w:st="on">Aviv</st1:placename> <st1:placetype w:st="on">University</st1:placetype>, said that the Palestinian issue is not an easy topic to talk about for any of the leading parties in <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Israel</st1:place></st1:country-region> because they all know that it's not going to serve their electoral ambitions, but this doesn't mean that it won't come up. --NNN-XINHUA<o:p></o:p></span></div> <div class="MsoNormal"> <br /></div> </div>

Palestinian Issue No Longer Dominates Israeli Election

News analysis by Adam Gonn JERUSALEM (Xinhua) - When Israelis head to the polls on Jan. 22 to elect a new parliament, the econom...

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Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood Reverses Political Tactics

<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on"><br /> <div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-language: HI; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">By Elizabeth Arrott from Cairo</span></b></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-language: HI; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><br /> </span></b></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-language: HI; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">The decision by Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood to field a presidential candidate marks the latest reversal in the group's tactics during the nation's political transition.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">  </span>Political analysts are split over whether this will help or hurt the Islamist cause.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">  </span><o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-language: HI; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><br /> </div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-language: HI; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Secular, Christian, and even other Muslim groups have been quick to denounce the candidacy of the Muslim Brotherhood's Khairat el-Shater. <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><br /> </div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-language: HI; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Brotherhood politicians already dominate both houses of parliament, after initially pledging to contest a minority of seats.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">  </span>The prospect of an executive branch under the group's control raises fears the country ousted an authoritarian government only to replace it with something equally monolithic.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><br /> </div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-language: HI; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Political sociologist Said Sadek of the American University in Cairo says it is no surprise the Brotherhood went back on its promise to stay out of the race.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">  </span><o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><br /> </div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-language: HI; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">"The Muslim Brotherhood is like any totalitarian, ideological movement," Sadek said.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">  </span>"They have objectives.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">  </span>They have an ideology and tactics, and the tactics are very flexible to changing circumstances."<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">  </span><o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><br /> </div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-language: HI; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Similarly, the Brotherhood went back on its word on writing a new constitution.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">  </span>After promising to include a wide array of voices, the drafting committee is dominated by Islamists, with liberal and Christian groups as well as Islamic scholars withdrawing from the very limited role they were offered.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><br /> </div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-language: HI; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Al Ahram Center for Strategic Studies scholar Yousry el Ezbawy says the Islamists are likely to do well pushing through their constitutional agenda. <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><br /> </div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-language: HI; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">El Ezbawy says if the Islamists can frame the referendum on the constitution as they did on a similar vote last year, using "Islam is the Solution," sheer numbers in this Muslim majority nation will likely approve it.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><br /> </div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-language: HI; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">But there are reasons to believe that not everything points to a strict Islamist future.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">    </span><o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><br /> </div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-language: HI; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">AUC's Sadek argues el Shater is not in the race to win.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><br /> </div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-language: HI; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">"Those who believe that Khairat el Shater will topple anything, no.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">  </span>What he will do is to break and fragment the Islamic presidential candidates list.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">  </span>He will fragment it," said Sadek.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><br /> </div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-language: HI; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Sadek points out the Brotherhood is still stinging from the defection of moderate Islamist and former member Abdel Moneim Abou el Fotouh to run in the presidential race.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><br /> </div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-language: HI; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">It also faces internal rebellion from younger members of the group, and tensions between fundamentalist Salafi politicians and Muslim Brothers run high.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><br /> </div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-language: HI; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Having a candidate of their own in the race guarantees Brotherhood members at least some influence in what is shaping up to be a wide-open election and its likely run-off, more than 400 candidates have registered.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><br /> </div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-language: HI; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Even if the Islamists were unified, there are other powerful forces at play, most notably the nation's interim military leaders.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><br /> </div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-language: HI; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">The Supreme Council of the Armed Forces is working hard to keep the military's protected status in the next constitution.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">  </span>It cleared the legal barrier to el Shater's candidacy, his past prison record, another sign that both sides feel confident they can co-exist.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><br /> </div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-language: HI; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Even el Shater himself presents a paradox.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">  </span>Oppressed for his political beliefs by the former government, he was still able to become one of the elite by amassing a fortune in business enterprises.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><br /> </div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-language: HI; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">According to Sadek, Egyptian voters have become more savvy during the past year, and aware of such nuances.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">   </span><o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><br /> </div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-language: HI; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">"Many simple-minded people were addicted with catchy slogans: 'Islam is the solution.'<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">  </span>Fine.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">  </span>Everyone wants a solution to their chronic problems, inflation, unemployment, traffic problems.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">  </span>So they also wanted to get rid of the secular, the traditional corrupt politician and they wanted those people they believed are the men of God.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">  </span>Now, they are becoming disillusioned.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">  </span>They just feel that those people who make such lofty promises of a better world, of an ideal utopia are not that idealistic," Sadek explained.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">  </span><o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><br /> </div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-language: HI; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Stories of corrupt Islamists are fodder for the media, with one Salafi member of parliament resigning after lying about his cosmetic surgery. <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><br /> </div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-language: HI; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Sadek says he believes the various competing forces in Egyptian politics are being seen as just "normal politicians" with their own agendas and calculations, willing to be opportunistic and "speak with two tongues." <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><br /> </div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-language: HI; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">While the future of democracy in Egypt remains unclear, Sadek argues the chance of any one interest group dominating now is slim. ---VOA News<o:p></o:p></span></div></div>

Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood Reverses Political Tactics

By Elizabeth Arrott from Cairo The decision by Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood to field a presidential candidate marks the latest reversal ...

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Vladimir Putin: The Man, the State, the Destiny

<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on"><br /> <div class="MsoNormal" style="direction: ltr; text-align: justify; unicode-bidi: embed;"><br /> </div><div class="MsoNormal" style="direction: ltr; text-align: justify; unicode-bidi: embed;"><b><i><span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">By Marc Bennetts for RIA Novosti<o:p></o:p></span></i></b></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="direction: ltr; text-align: justify; unicode-bidi: embed;"><br /> </div><div class="MsoNormal" style="direction: ltr; text-align: justify; unicode-bidi: embed;"><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;"><tbody> <tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj2dWZvdv8sP2RrBPcwa0T4d5GEYw_h7DD1dFjmxMwpi5YxI7GGePhSvaVTQflzSq-GYlo9rOukn_97rYnz7F7rir49KXinU62vfNH3PszZQh4wUZK1wrCffagtT7z-WCU1Ute_-9WwfA0/s1600/valdimirputincc.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj2dWZvdv8sP2RrBPcwa0T4d5GEYw_h7DD1dFjmxMwpi5YxI7GGePhSvaVTQflzSq-GYlo9rOukn_97rYnz7F7rir49KXinU62vfNH3PszZQh4wUZK1wrCffagtT7z-WCU1Ute_-9WwfA0/s320/valdimirputincc.jpg" width="234" /></a></td></tr> <tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="direction: ltr; text-align: left; unicode-bidi: embed;"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt;">Valdimir Putin <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="direction: ltr; text-align: left; unicode-bidi: embed;"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt;">Photo:</span><span class="apple-converted-space"><i><span style="color: #555555; font-size: 9.0pt;"> </span></i></span><span style="font-size: 10.0pt;"><a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/worldeconomicforum/3488885680/sizes/z/in/photostream/"><i><span style="font-size: 9.0pt;">flickr.com/worldeconomicforum</span></i></a></span><span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 6.5pt;"><u1:p></u1:p><o:p></o:p></span></div></td></tr> </tbody></table><span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">It was a handover of power more unexpected than most and one that would shape Russia’s destiny for the next decade and beyond. On the evening of December 31, 1999, an ageing and clearly ailing President Boris Yeltsin stepped down in favor of his then largely unknown and young Prime Minister, Vladimir Putin. As the Kremlin clock ticked down to the new millennium, Putin addressed Russians as national leader for the first time.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="direction: ltr; text-align: justify; unicode-bidi: embed;"><span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><br /> </span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="direction: ltr; text-align: justify; unicode-bidi: embed;"><span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">“Like you, I intended this evening to listen to the New Year greetings of President Boris Yeltsin,” Putin told an audience of millions. “But things turned out otherwise.”<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="direction: ltr; text-align: justify; unicode-bidi: embed;"><span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><br /> </span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="direction: ltr; text-align: justify; unicode-bidi: embed;"><span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Fate had thrown the one-time KGB officer and ex-head of Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) a spectacular hand. But few, if any, would have suspected then that Putin would remain the country’s dominant politician for the next twelve years.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="direction: ltr; text-align: justify; unicode-bidi: embed;"><span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><br /> </span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="direction: ltr; text-align: justify; unicode-bidi: embed;"><span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">And as Putin, 59, prepares to return to the Kremlin after spending four years as prime minister, almost as many uncertainties surround him today as they did when the question “Who is Mr. Putin?” was first posed all those years ago.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="direction: ltr; text-align: justify; unicode-bidi: embed;"><span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><br /> </span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="direction: ltr; text-align: justify; unicode-bidi: embed;"><b><span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Survivor and Secrecy<o:p></o:p></span></b></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="direction: ltr; text-align: justify; unicode-bidi: embed;"><b><span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><br /> </span></b></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="direction: ltr; text-align: justify; unicode-bidi: embed;"><span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Born in 1952 in the Soviet Union’s northern port and pre-Bolshevik Revolution capital of Leningrad (now St. Petersburg), Putin was, as he himself admitted in the biography “First Person,” a childhood “hooligan.” He took up martial arts while at school to, as he revealed in a recent German documentary, “assert my position in the pack.”<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="direction: ltr; text-align: justify; unicode-bidi: embed;"><span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><br /> </span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="direction: ltr; text-align: justify; unicode-bidi: embed;"><span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">His instinct for survival, which would serve him well in the years to come, may have been inherited from his paternal grandfather, Spiridon Putin, a cook for both Lenin and, later, Stalin.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="direction: ltr; text-align: justify; unicode-bidi: embed;"><span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><br /> </span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="direction: ltr; text-align: justify; unicode-bidi: embed;"><span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">“Not many people who were around Stalin all the time managed to escape unscathed,” Putin said shortly after becoming president. “But my grandfather did.”<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="direction: ltr; text-align: justify; unicode-bidi: embed;"><span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><br /> </span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="direction: ltr; text-align: justify; unicode-bidi: embed;"><span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">After university, Putin joined the KGB, fulfilling in the process a childhood dream born of Soviet-era films that glamorized the world of the socialist secret agent. But he was no Slavic James Bond, performing what he has called “ordinary intelligence” work in Dresden, East Germany – his only foreign posting.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="direction: ltr; text-align: justify; unicode-bidi: embed;"><span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><br /> </span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="direction: ltr; text-align: justify; unicode-bidi: embed;"><span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">It was while he was in East Germany that the Soviet Union began to fall apart, Communist Party leader Mikhail Gorbachev’s reforms leading to what Putin would later emotionally describe as the “greatest geo-political catastrophe of the century.”<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="direction: ltr; text-align: justify; unicode-bidi: embed;"><span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><br /> </span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="direction: ltr; text-align: justify; unicode-bidi: embed;"><span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Upon his return to Russia, Putin found work in what was now St. Petersburg with one of his previous law lecturers, city mayor Anatoly Sobchak. As president, Putin would draw on the friendships and acquaintances he made at City Hall when appointing senior officials, with fellow St Petersburgers such as future Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin and – most famously of all – his hand-picked Kremlin successor Dmitry Medvedev, following him to Moscow.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="direction: ltr; text-align: justify; unicode-bidi: embed;"><span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><br /> </span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="direction: ltr; text-align: justify; unicode-bidi: embed;"><span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">In 1996, Putin was brought into the Kremlin as deputy head of the property management department and rose quickly through the ranks before being appointed FSB chief in July 1998. He would remain Russia’s security supremo until Yeltsin named him prime minister a year later.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="direction: ltr; text-align: justify; unicode-bidi: embed;"><span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><br /> </span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="direction: ltr; text-align: justify; unicode-bidi: embed;"><span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">But Russians say “there is no such thing as a former KGB agent” and analysts believe Putin’s time in the security services irrevocably shaped his world view.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="direction: ltr; text-align: justify; unicode-bidi: embed;"><span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><br /> </span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="direction: ltr; text-align: justify; unicode-bidi: embed;"><span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">“He doesn’t believe that people can act independently, that they are all agents of someone or another,” Moscow-based security analyst Andrei Soldatov said he added. “This suspicious approach was most likely formed during his time in the KGB.”<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="direction: ltr; text-align: justify; unicode-bidi: embed;"><span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><br /> </span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="direction: ltr; text-align: justify; unicode-bidi: embed;"><b><span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Securing Power<o:p></o:p></span></b></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="direction: ltr; text-align: justify; unicode-bidi: embed;"><b><span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><br /> </span></b></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="direction: ltr; text-align: justify; unicode-bidi: embed;"><span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Putin’s sudden ascent to power was sealed at the March 2000 presidential polls, when he gained just over fifty percent of the vote. Initial low approval ratings had risen after he oversaw the return of Russian forces to Chechnya in September 1999, which had enjoyed semi-autonomy since the end of the first conflict there three years previously.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="direction: ltr; text-align: justify; unicode-bidi: embed;"><span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><br /> </span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="direction: ltr; text-align: justify; unicode-bidi: embed;"><span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">But a series of apartment explosions in Moscow and other cities, blamed on but never claimed by Chechen militants, in the autumn of 1999 had left over 300 dead and boosted support for another war in the North Caucasus.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="direction: ltr; text-align: justify; unicode-bidi: embed;"><span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">“We will waste them in the outhouse,” Putin said of Chechen separatists, the first in a series of earthy remarks that would cement his image as a tough-talking, tough-acting leader.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="direction: ltr; text-align: justify; unicode-bidi: embed;"><span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><br /> </span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="direction: ltr; text-align: justify; unicode-bidi: embed;"><span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Secure in the Kremlin, Putin spent the subsequent years consolidating his power, neutering the mass media, in particular national television. His critics also maintain that he has removed serious political rivals by underhand means, with supporters of former oil tycoon Mikhail Khodorkovsky alleging that the ex-Yukos CEO was jailed on trumped up fraud charges for financing support for Russia’s opposition. Putin has denied the accusation, saying “a thief belongs behind bars” and insists he has had no personal involvement in the case.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="direction: ltr; text-align: justify; unicode-bidi: embed;"><span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">“He’s consistently eviscerated all other centers of power," said analyst Masha Lipman at the Moscow Carnegie Center think-tank. “He’s suppressed and or taken under his control parliament, political parties, regional governors, big business and major media. Plus he’s effectively secured the political arena from any other unwanted players.”<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="direction: ltr; text-align: justify; unicode-bidi: embed;"><span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><br /> </span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="direction: ltr; text-align: justify; unicode-bidi: embed;"><span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">But Putin said actions like the scrapping of direct elections for regional governors were aimed at strengthening security and halting Russia’s “epidemic of collapse,” which he partially blamed for the horrors of the 2004 Beslan school siege in the North Caucasus. The siege, which ended when special forces stormed the building where Chechen militants were holding over 1,000 people hostage, claimed the lives of 334 people, more than half of them children.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="direction: ltr; text-align: justify; unicode-bidi: embed;"><span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><br /> </span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="direction: ltr; text-align: justify; unicode-bidi: embed;"><b><span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">World Stage<o:p></o:p></span></b></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="direction: ltr; text-align: justify; unicode-bidi: embed;"><b><span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><br /> </span></b></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="direction: ltr; text-align: justify; unicode-bidi: embed;"><span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Putin was, as the Kremlin frequently reminded the international community in subsequent years, the first world leader to call the White House to express his condolences after the 9/11 attacks in the United States. And when Washington responded to that assault by launching a war against the Taliban in Afghanistan, Putin readily gave his blessing to the stationing of NATO troops in former Soviet Central Asian republics that Russia considered part of its own “sphere” and where Russian troops were also based.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="direction: ltr; text-align: justify; unicode-bidi: embed;"><span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><br /> </span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="direction: ltr; text-align: justify; unicode-bidi: embed;"><span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">But relations would not remain as warm for long. With oil prices sky-high, Putin oversaw the perceived restoration of Russia’s global standing, with Moscow regularly defying the West over what Putin would dub at a famous speech in Munich in 2007 “the uncontained hyper-use of military force in international relations.”<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="direction: ltr; text-align: justify; unicode-bidi: embed;"><span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><br /> </span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="direction: ltr; text-align: justify; unicode-bidi: embed;"><span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Putin’s nod to mainly US military forces moving into Central Asia was followed soon thereafter – and unexpectedly, Russia says – by formal NATO enlargement to include Moscow’s previous allies in eastern Europe. And the so-called color revolutions that swept through the former Soviet republics of Ukraine and Georgia in 2003-2004 also did much to increase Putin’s antipathy toward Western powers, whose hand he saw behind the uprisings.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="direction: ltr; text-align: justify; unicode-bidi: embed;"><span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><br /> </span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="direction: ltr; text-align: justify; unicode-bidi: embed;"><span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Last December, Putin said Washington had encouraged the protests that followed that month’s disputed parliamentary polls in Russia. "We will never let others impose their will on us," he said. He has also regularly expressed scorn for opposition activists calling them in 2007 “jackals” who “count on the support of foreign funds and governments, but not the support of their own people.”<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="direction: ltr; text-align: justify; unicode-bidi: embed;"><span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><br /> </span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="direction: ltr; text-align: justify; unicode-bidi: embed;"><span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">“Putin is not generally well-disposed to the US. He is always touchy and distrustful on relations,” said Fiona Hill, director of the Centre on the United States and Europe at the Washington-based Brookings Institution. “Forging a relationship with Putin will be difficult for [US President Barack] Obama, as well as for whoever else might come next in the US presidency.”<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="direction: ltr; text-align: justify; unicode-bidi: embed;"><span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><br /> </span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="direction: ltr; text-align: justify; unicode-bidi: embed;"><span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">But while Putin has been vilified in the West, his stance on what he has called a US “cult of violence” has won him plaudits elsewhere.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="direction: ltr; text-align: justify; unicode-bidi: embed;"><span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><br /> </span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="direction: ltr; text-align: justify; unicode-bidi: embed;"><span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">“Russia has been at the forefront of quarrelling with Western ambitions…and for this Putin has been heralded by Indians, Arabs and the Chinese,” said Alexander Rahr, director of the Berlin-based Berthold Beitz Center for Russia, Ukraine, Belarus and Central Asia.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="direction: ltr; text-align: justify; unicode-bidi: embed;"><span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><br /> </span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="direction: ltr; text-align: justify; unicode-bidi: embed;"><span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">“There has also been a demonization of Putin in the West because he has been building a strong Russia,” he added. “They want Russia to become integrated with the West, but only as a junior partner – they are not prepared to accept it on its own terms, and as a country with its own traditions.”<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="direction: ltr; text-align: justify; unicode-bidi: embed;"><span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><br /> </span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="direction: ltr; text-align: justify; unicode-bidi: embed;"><b><span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Stability and New Demands<o:p></o:p></span></b></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="direction: ltr; text-align: justify; unicode-bidi: embed;"><b><span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><br /> </span></b></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="direction: ltr; text-align: justify; unicode-bidi: embed;"><span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">“Russians have had no sense of stability for the past ten years,” Putin told state television in a wide-ranging interview less than two months after taking over from Yeltsin. “We hope to return this feeling.”<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="direction: ltr; text-align: justify; unicode-bidi: embed;"><span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><br /> </span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="direction: ltr; text-align: justify; unicode-bidi: embed;"><span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">And it is this “stability” that Putin and his supporters have trumpeted as one of, if not the, major achievements of his reign, contrasting it favorably with what has become known here as the “wild 1990s.”<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="direction: ltr; text-align: justify; unicode-bidi: embed;"><span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><br /> </span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="direction: ltr; text-align: justify; unicode-bidi: embed;"><span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">“Putin stabilized the country and he gave the people back some dignity,” said Rahr. “There have also been economic improvements in Russia during his rule.”<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="direction: ltr; text-align: justify; unicode-bidi: embed;"><span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><br /> </span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="direction: ltr; text-align: justify; unicode-bidi: embed;"><span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Despite Putin’s pledge in that debut New Year Eve’s speech to protect “The freedom of speech, the freedom of conscience, the freedom of the media and property rights,” however, Russians in the 2000s entered into an unspoken agreement with the Kremlin to exchange active engagement in shaping the country’ political agenda for material comforts. But as the nascent middle class began to enjoy the fruits of the deal, a fundamental change came about.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="direction: ltr; text-align: justify; unicode-bidi: embed;"><span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><br /> </span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="direction: ltr; text-align: justify; unicode-bidi: embed;"><span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">“It’s obvious that, yes, Putin brought stability. He ended the war in Chechnya, put a stop to the widespread street crime of the 1990s and increased the quality of life,” explained analyst Sergey Mikheyev of the Moscow-based Center for Political Assessment.</span><span dir="RTL" lang="AR-SA" style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="direction: ltr; text-align: justify; unicode-bidi: embed;"><span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><br /> </span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="direction: ltr; text-align: justify; unicode-bidi: embed;"><span dir="LTR"></span><span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><span dir="LTR"></span>“But all this led to a different set of demands,” he added. “If in the 1990s, people were simply concerned with what they were going to eat, now they want to enjoy the kind of lives they see that people in Europe and the US lead.”<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="direction: ltr; text-align: justify; unicode-bidi: embed;"><span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><br /> </span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="direction: ltr; text-align: justify; unicode-bidi: embed;"><span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Many here, though, see no viable alternative to the man who has ruled Russia in one form or another since 2000 and fear for the immediate future of the country if the protest slogan of “Russia without Putin!” is realized.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="direction: ltr; text-align: justify; unicode-bidi: embed;"><span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><br /> </span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="direction: ltr; text-align: justify; unicode-bidi: embed;"><span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">“Right now, Russia’s political system is structured in such as way that there really is no alternative to Putin,” said Savlin. “I don’t see any other options but the return of Putin to the Kremlin.”<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="direction: ltr; text-align: justify; unicode-bidi: embed;"><span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><br /> </span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="direction: ltr; text-align: justify; unicode-bidi: embed;"><span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">“If he were to satisfy opposition demands for him to step down, Russia would be faced with real chaos,” he added.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="direction: ltr; text-align: justify; unicode-bidi: embed;"><span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><br /> </span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="direction: ltr; text-align: justify; unicode-bidi: embed;"><b><span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Popularity and Protests<o:p></o:p></span></b></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="direction: ltr; text-align: justify; unicode-bidi: embed;"><b><span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><br /> </span></b></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="direction: ltr; text-align: justify; unicode-bidi: embed;"><span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">After the frequently inebriated Yeltsin, the inauguration of the teetotaler, straight-speaking Putin as president in May 2000 was welcomed by the vast majority of Russians.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="direction: ltr; text-align: justify; unicode-bidi: embed;"><span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><br /> </span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="direction: ltr; text-align: justify; unicode-bidi: embed;"><span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Putin was also lauded at home for returning a sense of national pride to a former superpower traumatized by Yeltsin-era poverty and impotence in the international arena.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="direction: ltr; text-align: justify; unicode-bidi: embed;"><span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">His ratings soaring, Putin faced almost no opposition when he successfully ran for re-election in 2004, with the leaders of major opposition parties all deciding a challenge was senseless. Putin was re-elected with a landslide, gaining almost 72 percent of the vote.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="direction: ltr; text-align: justify; unicode-bidi: embed;"><span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><br /> </span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="direction: ltr; text-align: justify; unicode-bidi: embed;"><span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">But as the end of his second term of office approached, Putin was compelled to leave the Kremlin by the Constitution, which stated that no president could serve more than “two, consecutive terms.” Amid speculation that he would seek to amend Russia’s basic law to allow him to stand again, Putin confounded the experts by announcing that he would back First Deputy Prime Minister Medvedev to succeed him.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="direction: ltr; text-align: justify; unicode-bidi: embed;"><span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><br /> </span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="direction: ltr; text-align: justify; unicode-bidi: embed;"><span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Medvedev’s victory assured by his powerful patron, Putin accepted the new president’s proposal to become prime minister after the March 2008 polls. But there was little doubt, neither at home nor abroad, that Putin was the dominant partner in the ruling tandem, and he was memorably described as “Batman to Medvedev’s Robin” in a leaked US embassy memo in 2011.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="direction: ltr; text-align: justify; unicode-bidi: embed;"><span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><br /> </span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="direction: ltr; text-align: justify; unicode-bidi: embed;"><span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">He also remained its most popular, with few indications of public dissent until he attended a no-holds barred bout featuring Russian heavyweight champion Fedor Emelianenko in Moscow in the autumn of 2011. The fight came just two months after Medvedev and Putin had announced that they would seek to swap jobs after the March 4 presidential polls, a move that alienated many urban, educated Russians.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="direction: ltr; text-align: justify; unicode-bidi: embed;"><span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><br /> </span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="direction: ltr; text-align: justify; unicode-bidi: embed;"><span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Still, it was the kind of event Putin should have been in his element at, yet another chance to bolster his tough guy image and demonstrate his pride at Russian victory. But as he began to speak, to laud Emelianenko’s triumph over his American opponent, the catcalls and booing began. Putin paused for a moment before raising his voice to continue.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="direction: ltr; text-align: justify; unicode-bidi: embed;"><span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">State television later edited out the jeers and Putin supporters claimed the booing had been directed at the losing U.S. fighter. But whatever the truth, video of the incident went viral on the Russian internet and emboldened Putin’s opponents. Alexei Navalny, the blogger and opposition activist who would soon become the most visible thorn in Putin’s side, called it “the end of an era.”<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="direction: ltr; text-align: justify; unicode-bidi: embed;"><span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><br /> </span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="direction: ltr; text-align: justify; unicode-bidi: embed;"><span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">But it was the December 2011 parliamentary elections that triggered the largest demonstrations against Putin’s rule, as tens of thousands of people packed downtown Moscow on four separate occasions in the months that followed to demand fair elections and, increasingly, the removal of Putin himself.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="direction: ltr; text-align: justify; unicode-bidi: embed;"><span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><br /> </span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="direction: ltr; text-align: justify; unicode-bidi: embed;"><span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">“Putin is in a Catch-22 situation,” said Fraser Cameron, director of the Brussels-based EU-Russia think-tank. “Basically Russia has to change at some point. But if he opens up the system, his whole power structure that he has built up will be in jeopardy and he could fall.”<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="direction: ltr; text-align: justify; unicode-bidi: embed;"><span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">“But if he doesn’t open up, there will be more demonstrations, which could be quite bloody at some point, and that could also lead to his downfall,” he added.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="direction: ltr; text-align: justify; unicode-bidi: embed;"><span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><br /> </span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="direction: ltr; text-align: justify; unicode-bidi: embed;"><b><span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Change to Survive?<o:p></o:p></span></b></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="direction: ltr; text-align: justify; unicode-bidi: embed;"><b><span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><br /> </span></b></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="direction: ltr; text-align: justify; unicode-bidi: embed;"><span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">And even among those who praise Putin’s achievements during his twelve years in power, there is an awareness that he “must change” to survive.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="direction: ltr; text-align: justify; unicode-bidi: embed;"><br /> </div><div class="MsoNormal" style="direction: ltr; text-align: justify; unicode-bidi: embed;"><span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">“Putin stabilized the country and he gave the people back some dignity,” said German analyst Rahr. <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="direction: ltr; text-align: justify; unicode-bidi: embed;"><br /> </div><div class="MsoNormal" style="direction: ltr; text-align: justify; unicode-bidi: embed;"><span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">“But the Russian people have changed a lot since 2000 and he needs to change as well.”<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="direction: ltr; text-align: justify; unicode-bidi: embed;"><br /> </div><div class="MsoNormal" style="direction: ltr; text-align: justify; unicode-bidi: embed;"><span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">“I think it’s more likely he will remain in power for six years, but even these six years will be the most difficult for him,” he added. ‘The Russian people don’t want to see democracy as a farce and if Putin wants to remain the national leader, he must understand this.”<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="direction: ltr; text-align: justify; unicode-bidi: embed;"><br /> </div><div class="MsoNormal" style="direction: ltr; text-align: justify; unicode-bidi: embed;"><span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">But, analysts say, there is little indication that Putin is prepared to make these changes.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="direction: ltr; text-align: justify; unicode-bidi: embed;"><br /> </div><div class="MsoNormal" style="direction: ltr; text-align: justify; unicode-bidi: embed;"><span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">“Putin now seems to see himself almost as the embodiment of the state,” said Fiona Hill, director of the Centre on the United States and Europe at the Brookings Institution. “He is running for president purely on the basis of his personal achievements, attributes and popularity, and how Russia has progressed under him.”<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="direction: ltr; text-align: justify; unicode-bidi: embed;"><br /> </div><div class="MsoNormal" style="direction: ltr; text-align: justify; unicode-bidi: embed;"><span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Putin and his supporters have responded in kind to the unprecedented protests that have rocked Moscow and other cities, staging mass counter rallies across the country. But critics have claimed that government employees have been coerced into attending these superbly orchestrated shows of support. Putin has admitted this may have been true in some cases, but said the effect on numbers should not be “exaggerated.”<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="direction: ltr; text-align: justify; unicode-bidi: embed;"><span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><br /> </span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="direction: ltr; text-align: justify; unicode-bidi: embed;"><span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">But the man who has - for better or for worse - come to represent modern Russia was in typically defiant mood at a mass rally at a Moscow stadium in late February.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="direction: ltr; text-align: justify; unicode-bidi: embed;"><br /> </div><div class="MsoNormal" style="direction: ltr; text-align: justify; unicode-bidi: embed;"><span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">“The battle for Russia goes on!” he told the crowd at the cavernous Luzhniki sports arena, his hand reaching up and swiftly down as if to snatch victory from the chill Moscow air. “And we will win!”<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="direction: ltr; text-align: justify; unicode-bidi: embed;"><span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><br /> </span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="direction: ltr; text-align: justify; unicode-bidi: embed;"><span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">As Putin strode off the stage, the crowd responded with sustained cheers. The opposition later claimed the applause had been pre-recorded. It was a controversy that neatly encapsulated the increasingly heated debate around Putin’s tenure as Russia’s leader.<i><o:p></o:p></i></span></div></div>

Vladimir Putin: The Man, the State, the Destiny

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AFRICA: Snake Oil Salesmen And Dodgy HIV "Cures"

<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on"><br /> <table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;"><tbody> <tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjBbfSkyJGbWE2WkFq3fDRA5X0k8UM-ZoAmhyphenhyphenuOWBJMeol6-Cprm177xkTWaPcRy11YIrmOYHwIgpznmXwdfkTqTDSwFKs5poC1LchqDY3Iuebe9D_CQLMAqPP50x5wXhbOEqzGqAwLiK0/s1600/200641010.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjBbfSkyJGbWE2WkFq3fDRA5X0k8UM-ZoAmhyphenhyphenuOWBJMeol6-Cprm177xkTWaPcRy11YIrmOYHwIgpznmXwdfkTqTDSwFKs5poC1LchqDY3Iuebe9D_CQLMAqPP50x5wXhbOEqzGqAwLiK0/s1600/200641010.jpg" /></a></td></tr> <tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS"; font-size: 8.0pt;">Ubhejane - the traditional medicine which was said to help<o:p></o:p></span></div><div align="center" class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS"; font-size: 8.0pt;">HIV-positive people boost their immune system<o:p></o:p></span></div><div align="center" class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS"; font-size: 8.0pt;">Photo: <a href="http://www.plusnews.org/"><span style="color: windowtext; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">Kanya Ndaki/PlusNews</span></a><o:p></o:p></span></div></td></tr> </tbody></table><br /> <div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b><i><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS";">NAIROBI/JOHANNESBURG</span></i></b><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS";"> (PlusNews) - <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on"><b><i>Uganda</i></b></st1:place></st1:country-region><b><i>'s National Drug Authority recently arrested sales representatives of a company selling a drug that purports to cure HIV; the firm's owners are not licensed to sell medicine and are being sought by the police. <o:p></o:p></i></b></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><br /> </div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS";">The drug, known as Virol ZAPPER, was being sold in 37ml liquid doses, each costing about US$210; patients were advised to take 10 drops daily. It was being advertised on local radio and TV stations as a miracle cure for HIV. <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><br /> </div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS";">The sale of such "cures" is a profitable racket for charlatans willing to take advantage of desperate HIV-positive people; here is a collection of some dodgy treatments that have made the news in <st1:place w:st="on">Africa</st1:place> over the years: <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><br /> </div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b><i><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS";">Tanzania - In 2011, tens of thousands of people from all over East Africa flocked to the tiny village of Loliondo in Tanzania seeking a cure for several diseases, including diabetes, tuberculosis and HIV. Ambilikile Mwasapile, a former Lutheran pastor, was charging 500 Tanzanian shillings - about $0.33 - for a cup for his concoction. <o:p></o:p></span></i></b></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><br /> </div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS";">Several sick people died in the queues, which at their peak numbered 15,000 people. Studies are being conducted to determine the properties of Mwasapile's treatment. <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><br /> </div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><st1:country-region w:st="on"><b><i><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS";">South Africa</span></i></b></st1:country-region><b><i><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS";"> - A 2008 <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:placetype w:st="on">Cape</st1:placetype> <st1:placename w:st="on">High Court</st1:placename></st1:place> judgment ruled that clinical trials of multivitamins in the treatment of HIV/AIDS by controversial vitamin salesman Matthias Rath were unlawful, and stopped them. The court also prohibited Rath from publishing any more advertisements claiming that his product, VitaCell, cured AIDS, pending further review by the Medicines Control Council. <o:p></o:p></span></i></b></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><br /> </div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS";">Rath, who had been operating in <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">South Africa</st1:place></st1:country-region> since about 2004, claimed his multivitamins treated AIDS, heart disease, cancer, diabetes, bird flu and numerous other illnesses. Rath ran numerous advertisements aimed at convincing HIV-positive people to take his high-dose multivitamins rather than ARVs, available free-of-charge through the public health system, which he claimed were "toxic". <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><br /> </div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b><i><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS";">Kenya - In 2008, the government warned HIV-positive people in the country's eastern <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:placetype w:st="on">Coast</st1:placetype> <st1:placetype w:st="on">Province</st1:placetype></st1:place> to reject herbal "cures" peddled by fake herbalists who claimed their concoctions contained unique ingredients that could boost the immune system and even cure HIV. <o:p></o:p></span></i></b></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><br /> </div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS";">An estimated 80 percent of Kenyans use traditional healers either exclusively or in conjunction with western medicine; the government is drafting regulations to stop fraudulent herbalists from practising. <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><br /> </div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b><i><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS";">Gambia - In 2007, President Yahya Jammeh was roundly denounced by AIDS activists when he said he had found a cure for HIV/AIDS and began treating citizens. Shortly after his announcement, Jammeh expelled the most senior UN official in the country for questioning his "cure". <o:p></o:p></span></i></b></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><br /> </div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS";">The programme is still running, but more Gambians are choosing ARVs over Jammeh's treatment. <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><br /> </div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b><i><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS";">Ethiopia - In 2007, thousands of HIV-positive patients flocked to Entoto, an ancient mountain north of the capital, <st1:city w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Addis Ababa</st1:place></st1:city>, seeking a "holy water" cure for AIDS after local priests said they could cure HIV. <o:p></o:p></span></i></b></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><br /> </div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS";">The Archbishop of the Ethiopian Orthodox Church, Abune Paulos, later advised patients to continue with their ARVs even as they sought healing at Entoto.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><br /> </div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><br /> </div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody> <tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEip62ohYOKqdoWtHz499i3SiwA1BkU1uexW8Vu_PDNoMMENL3JJxPIOZy64kwMgwuxvF4o0ZTutzeKEXbvEyK6gxsdGgvj5qw4xDYA93juPDGofCmnIFQgvvSAWBJZ_L44qtHugnGKSYcs/s1600/2007082223.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEip62ohYOKqdoWtHz499i3SiwA1BkU1uexW8Vu_PDNoMMENL3JJxPIOZy64kwMgwuxvF4o0ZTutzeKEXbvEyK6gxsdGgvj5qw4xDYA93juPDGofCmnIFQgvvSAWBJZ_L44qtHugnGKSYcs/s640/2007082223.jpg" width="424" /></a></td></tr> <tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS"; font-size: 8.0pt;">Ubhejane - the traditional medicine which was said to help<o:p></o:p></span></div><div align="center" class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS"; font-size: 8.0pt;">HIV-positive people boost their immune system<o:p></o:p></span></div><div align="center" class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS"; font-size: 8.0pt;">Photo: <a href="http://www.plusnews.org/"><span style="color: windowtext; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">Kanya Ndaki/PlusNews</span></a><o:p></o:p></span></div></td></tr> </tbody></table><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS";"> <b><i>S ão Tome and Principe - In 2007, questions were raised about Dorviro-Sida, or "Put AIDS to sleep" in Portuguese, an anti-AIDS herbal remedy produced by Amancio Valentim, president of the Association of Traditional Medicine of São Tome and Principe. Valentim claimed three tablespoons of the brownish syrup, taken every day before meals, could reduce the viral load and make patients feel better; he said four patients who had taken the drug for four years had tested negative for HIV. <o:p></o:p></i></b></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><br /> </div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS";">AIDS activists were concerned the drug could make HIV-positive people complacent about taking their ARVs, and the health ministry said it did not support Valentim's treatment. <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><br /> </div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><st1:country-region w:st="on"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS";">South Africa</span></st1:country-region><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS";"> - In 2006, a clinic in <st1:country-region w:st="on">South Africa</st1:country-region>'s east coast city of <st1:city w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Durban</st1:place></st1:city> began to sell "ubhejane" - a herbal mixture believed to treat HIV/AIDS. <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><br /> </div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS";">The controversial traditional medicine received vast media coverage, mainly due to the backing it received from influential political figures such as the former health minister, Dr Manto Tshabalala-Msimang, and provincial health officials. Ubhejane, a dark brown liquid sold in old plastic milk bottles, had not undergone any clinical trials to test its efficacy. All that the tests confirmed was that it was not toxic. <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><br /> </div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS";">But HIV-positive patients were far more willing to accept the traditional medicine as an effective remedy, flocking to the clinic to buy a full course of the herbal remedy that retailed at R374 ($40). <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><br /> </div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b><i><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS";">Uganda - In 2006, the Ugandan government banned the use of a popular anti-AIDS herb remedy known as "Khomeini", after tests found it provided no cure. Iranian Sheikh Allagholi Elahi claimed the drug - which contained olive oil and honey and cost $1,650 per dose - could cure HIV/AIDS and TB in three weeks. <o:p></o:p></span></i></b></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><br /> </div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS";">Studies by experts in <st1:country-region w:st="on">Uganda</st1:country-region> and <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Kenya</st1:country-region></st1:place> found that while patients had gained weight due to the nutritional content of the drug, it was incapable of curing HIV. ---</span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Arial; font-size: 9.0pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS";">IRIN<o:p></o:p></span></div></div>

AFRICA: Snake Oil Salesmen And Dodgy HIV "Cures"

Ubhejane - the traditional medicine which was said to help HIV-positive people boost their immune system Photo:  Kanya Ndaki/PlusNews N...

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Analysis: What can be done about Nigeria’s Boko Haram militants?

<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on"><br /> <table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;"><tbody> <tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi1NQ9KWRvA03DJvrhbGvdlpWIQhMYth_OS0towoBkD6AxiQ40N7TZpKE0R2b-GwbB5Z2bhIHfAVhQTrLWTXJlMIMbUuGW-XGXcdE4uxEmvHJ9CLHvEjrpmHSlDD22kolH5P8X8Zyzz19c/s1600/201201110951010120.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="266" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi1NQ9KWRvA03DJvrhbGvdlpWIQhMYth_OS0towoBkD6AxiQ40N7TZpKE0R2b-GwbB5Z2bhIHfAVhQTrLWTXJlMIMbUuGW-XGXcdE4uxEmvHJ9CLHvEjrpmHSlDD22kolH5P8X8Zyzz19c/s400/201201110951010120.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr> <tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium;"><i><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: white; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; font-family: 'Trebuchet MS'; font-size: 8pt;">Photo: <a href="http://www.irinnews.org/photo/"><span style="color: windowtext; text-decoration: none;">Obinna Anyadike/IRIN</span></a><o:p></o:p></span></i></div><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium;"><i><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: white; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; font-family: 'Trebuchet MS'; font-size: 8pt;">A church in <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:city w:st="on">Maiduguri</st1:city></st1:place>, one of 11 that have been attacked in the city since 2009</span></i></div></td></tr> </tbody></table><br /> <div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><st1:place w:st="on"><st1:city w:st="on"><span style="background: white; font-family: "Trebuchet MS";">NAIROBI</span></st1:city></st1:place><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: white; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; font-family: 'Trebuchet MS';"> (IRIN) - As bombings and shootings by the militant Islamic group Jama’atu Ahlus Sunnah Lid Da’awati Wal Jihad - better known as Boko Haram - escalate, the Nigerian government appears to be struggling to cope with the violence, or map a political solution to the crisis.</span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="background: white; font-family: "Trebuchet MS";"><br /> <br /> The Salafist group grabbed attention in 2009 with coordinated attacks on government buildings and police stations in four northern states which left more than 800 people dead. The attacks were revenge for an earlier clash with the police, who had opened fire on Boko Haram followers in a funeral procession in the northeastern city of <st1:city w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Maiduguri</st1:place></st1:city>, which was widely seen as a deliberate attempt by the state authorities to crush the group.<br /> <br /> The violence metastasized in 2011: there were bombings of the headquarters of the police and the UN in the capital, <st1:city w:st="on">Abuja</st1:city>; more than 100 died in bomb and gun attacks in a single day in two towns in northeastern <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:placename w:st="on">Yobe</st1:placename> <st1:placetype w:st="on">State</st1:placetype></st1:place>, and Boko Haram promised strikes in the largely non-Muslim Christian south. In what seemed a deliberate attempt to stir sectarian unrest, a series of bombings on churches on Christmas Day in <st1:city w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Abuja</st1:place></st1:city> killed close to 40 people.<br /> <br /> As Nigerians nervously consider what the violence could portend for the unity of the country, IRIN asked three analysts their views on the conflict, and the steps needed to resolve it. The following responses are from Innocent Chukwuma, executive director of the Cleen Foundation; Hussaini Abdu, a public policy analyst; and security specialist Hussaini Monguno.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="background: white; font-family: "Trebuchet MS";"><br /> <br /> <b>What does Boko Haram represent?<o:p></o:p></b></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="background: white; font-family: "Trebuchet MS";"><br /> <br /> <b>Innocent Chukwuma:</b> Boko Haram represents different things to different people depending on where you stand in the deep divide of Nigerian society. To the political elite in the south, it may have started as a small, fringe religious sect with a radical worldview about how Nigerian society, especially the northern part, should be governed according to the dictates of Islam. But today [they feel] it is has been hijacked by the northern political elite who have not hidden their distaste about the emergence of President Goodluck Jonathan [a Christian southerner], and are now using the group to make the state ungovernable in order to ensure the return of political power to the north.<br /> <br /> However, a more reflective viewpoint sees the group as representing the voices of the northern poor and downtrodden, even though misguided, who have been marginalized in the scheme of things and now seek a violent outlet to [highlight] their issues, like their counterparts in other parts of the country, such as the militants of the Niger Delta and the Odua People's Congress in the southwest.<br /> <br /> <b>Hussaini Abdu:</b> Boko Haram (BH) represents the backward slide of <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Nigeria</st1:place></st1:country-region>. Although presented in Islamic religious garb, its activities are deeply criminal and political. While the history of BH can be traced to a young Muslim group in the northeast of <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Nigeria</st1:place></st1:country-region>, they have since [morphed] to include criminal groups. Today nobody is clear what the group stands for [and] people are not sure who exactly is responsible for the spate of violence in the country. There is therefore no one acceptable narrative on the issue. The perception of north/Muslim is different from that of south/Christian. Whereas must people in the south or Christians accuse what they call "a disenchanted north" for the problem, the north seems to believe the violence is being perpetrated by people in government and their foreign backers to divide the country.<br /> <br /> <b>Hussaini Monguno</b>: Boko Haram is a name given in 2009 by the press to the religious group led by Mohammed Yusuf, when fighting broke out between the group and the Nigerian police in <st1:city w:st="on">Maiduguri</st1:city>, <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:placename w:st="on">Borno</st1:placename> <st1:placetype w:st="on">State</st1:placetype></st1:place>. This group is an outgrowth of the [conservative] Izala Movement [one of the largest Islamic societies in the country]… [but] Yusuf fell out with senior preachers over ego, differences in perception of religious texts and their attitude/relationship towards the <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:placename w:st="on">Borno</st1:placename> <st1:placetype w:st="on">State</st1:placetype></st1:place> government… Yusuf built up a robust camp that was self-reliant, well organized and a popular destination of jobless and frustrated youths who found hope and engagement. As his followership grew, his confidence grew - to the deep consternation of the state governor and his courtiers... At the moment the group has resorted to taking revenge for killings, persecution and torture of its members in various prison cells nationwide, with targeted killings of informants and bombings to rattle the government. Lately they have also started to seek recognition and relevance by appealing to aggrieved northern Muslim sentiment [over Jonathan's election victory].<br /> <!--[if !supportLineBreakNewLine]--><br /> <!--[endif]--><b><o:p></o:p></b></span></div><table align="right" border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="MsoNormalTable" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: #aabbdc; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border-bottom-color: rgb(51, 102, 153); border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-image: initial; border-left-color: rgb(51, 102, 153); border-left-style: solid; border-left-width: 1pt; border-right-color: rgb(51, 102, 153); border-right-style: solid; border-right-width: 1pt; border-top-color: rgb(51, 102, 153); border-top-style: solid; border-top-width: 1pt; margin-bottom: 3.75pt; margin-left: 6pt; margin-right: 6pt; margin-top: -0.75pt; width: 190px;"><tbody> <tr> <td style="border: none; padding: 3.75pt 3.75pt 3.75pt 3.75pt;"> <div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-element-anchor-horizontal: column; mso-element-anchor-vertical: paragraph; mso-element-frame-hspace: 8.25pt; mso-element-frame-vspace: 1.5pt; mso-element-left: right; mso-element-top: middle; mso-element-wrap: around; mso-element: frame; mso-height-rule: exactly; text-align: justify;"><!--[if gte vml 1]><v:shapetype id="_x0000_t75" coordsize="21600,21600" o:spt="75" o:preferrelative="t" path="m@4@5l@4@11@9@11@9@5xe" filled="f" stroked="f"> <v:stroke joinstyle="miter"/> <v:formulas> <v:f eqn="if lineDrawn pixelLineWidth 0"/> <v:f eqn="sum @0 1 0"/> <v:f eqn="sum 0 0 @1"/> <v:f eqn="prod @2 1 2"/> <v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelWidth"/> <v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelHeight"/> <v:f eqn="sum @0 0 1"/> <v:f eqn="prod @6 1 2"/> <v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelWidth"/> <v:f eqn="sum @8 21600 0"/> <v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelHeight"/> <v:f eqn="sum @10 21600 0"/> </v:formulas> <v:path o:extrusionok="f" gradientshapeok="t" o:connecttype="rect"/> <o:lock v:ext="edit" aspectratio="t"/> </v:shapetype><v:shape id="_x0000_s1026" type="#_x0000_t75" alt="''" style='position:absolute; left:0;text-align:left;margin-left:-387pt;margin-top:-466.25pt;width:17.25pt; height:13.5pt;z-index:1;mso-wrap-distance-left:0;mso-wrap-distance-top:0; mso-wrap-distance-right:0;mso-wrap-distance-bottom:0; mso-position-horizontal:absolute;mso-position-horizontal-relative:text; mso-position-vertical:absolute;mso-position-vertical-relative:line' o:allowoverlap="f"> <v:imagedata src="file:///C:\Users\wisdom\AppData\Local\Temp\msohtml1\01\clip_image001.jpg" o:title="quotopen"/> <w:wrap type="square"/> </v:shape><![endif]--><!--[if !vml]--><img align="left" alt="''" height="18" src="file:///C:/Users/wisdom/AppData/Local/Temp/msohtml1/01/clip_image001.jpg" v:shapes="_x0000_s1026" width="23" /><!--[endif]--><span style="background: white; font-family: "Trebuchet MS";"><b>Where the military is involved, the rules of engagement should be defined to avoid molestation of unarmed civilians and abuses that could further mobilize local communities</b><!--[if gte vml 1]><v:shape id="_x0000_i1025" type="#_x0000_t75" alt="''" style='width:17.25pt;height:13.5pt'> <v:imagedata src="file:///C:\Users\wisdom\AppData\Local\Temp\msohtml1\01\clip_image002.jpg" o:href="http://www.irinnews.org/images/design/quotclose.jpg"/> </v:shape><![endif]--><!--[if !vml]--><img align="absMiddle" alt="''" border="0" height="18" src="file:///C:/Users/wisdom/AppData/Local/Temp/msohtml1/01/clip_image002.jpg" v:shapes="_x0000_i1025" width="23" /><!--[endif]--><o:p></o:p></span></div></td> </tr> </tbody></table><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b><span style="background: white; font-family: "Trebuchet MS";">How should the government respond?</span></b></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="background-color: white; font-family: 'Trebuchet MS';">Innocent Chukwuma</b><span style="background-color: white; font-family: 'Trebuchet MS';">: The attacks by Boko Haram and the security challenges they pose represent a potent threat to the corporate existence of </span><st1:country-region style="background-color: white; font-family: 'Trebuchet MS';" w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Nigeria</st1:place></st1:country-region><span style="background-color: white; font-family: 'Trebuchet MS';"> and need to be responded to with all seriousness using a multipronged strategy. Government, in my view, has not given the group all the attention and seriousness it deserves and appear to be playing politics with it in order not to be seen to be hurting certain vested interests. A more holistic strategy should combine an intelligence-led security approach to fish out the masterminds of the attacks, and initiatives that would aid the isolation of the group from the communities in which they operate.</span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="background: white; font-family: "Trebuchet MS";"><br /> <br /> <b>Hussaini Abdu</b>: The government needs to be decisive and deepen intelligence gathering. Where the military is involved, the rules of engagement should be defined to avoid molestation of unarmed civilians and abuses that could further mobilize local communities against the state. The government will also need to make a long-term strategic investment in the northeast of the country to contain the level of poverty and exclusion in the area.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="background: white; font-family: "Trebuchet MS";"><br /> <br /> <b>Hussaini Monguno</b>: The federal government should:<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="background: white; font-family: "Trebuchet MS";"><br /> <!--[if !supportLineBreakNewLine]--><br /> <!--[endif]--><o:p></o:p></span></div><ul style="margin-top: 0in;" type="disc"><li class="MsoNormal" style="mso-list: l1 level1 lfo1; tab-stops: list .5in; text-align: justify;"><span style="background: white; font-family: "Trebuchet MS";">Appoint independent local, national or international leaders to appeal, appease and engage the aggrieved sect members and leaders;<o:p></o:p></span></li> <li class="MsoNormal" style="mso-list: l1 level1 lfo1; tab-stops: list .5in; text-align: justify;"><span style="background: white; font-family: "Trebuchet MS";">Unban the group, granting them the right to freedom of belief and practice as guaranteed by the Nigerian constitution;<o:p></o:p></span></li> <li class="MsoNormal" style="mso-list: l1 level1 lfo1; tab-stops: list .5in; text-align: justify;"><span style="background: white; font-family: "Trebuchet MS";">Renounce the use of violence, by all parties;<o:p></o:p></span></li> <li class="MsoNormal" style="mso-list: l1 level1 lfo1; tab-stops: list .5in; text-align: justify;"><span style="background: white; font-family: "Trebuchet MS";">Unconditionally release the thousands of Yusufiyya members in cells, detained without charge;<o:p></o:p></span></li> <li class="MsoNormal" style="mso-list: l1 level1 lfo1; tab-stops: list .5in; text-align: justify;"><span style="background: white; font-family: "Trebuchet MS";">Dispassionately review the events of 2009 and show remorse where necessary;<o:p></o:p></span></li> <li class="MsoNormal" style="mso-list: l1 level1 lfo1; tab-stops: list .5in; text-align: justify;"><span style="background: white; font-family: "Trebuchet MS";">Work to win the confidence and trust of the affected communities through careful conflict resolution measures;<o:p></o:p></span></li> <li class="MsoNormal" style="mso-list: l1 level1 lfo1; tab-stops: list .5in; text-align: justify;"><span style="background: white; font-family: "Trebuchet MS";">Compensate and rehabilitate all those families who have suffered loses both human and material;<o:p></o:p></span></li> <li class="MsoNormal" style="mso-list: l1 level1 lfo1; tab-stops: list .5in; text-align: justify;"><span style="background: white; font-family: "Trebuchet MS";">Allocate federal government resources for rapid rehabilitation of infrastructure, boost agriculture and cross-border trading to promote rapid employment for the teeming uneducated, excluded youths.<o:p></o:p></span></li> </ul><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .25in; text-align: justify;"><br /> </div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b><span style="background: white; font-family: "Trebuchet MS";">What are the constraints the government faces?<o:p></o:p></span></b></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="background: white; font-family: "Trebuchet MS";"><br /> <br /> <b>Innocent Chukwuma:</b> The major constraints faced by the government in dealing with Boko Haram is the politicization of everything in this country, which has crippled law enforcement and security agencies from carrying out their functions in a professional manner, without fear or favour.<br /> <br /> There is also a certain level of insincerity and deceit on the part of government in confronting the issue squarely. A typical example is the half-hearted declaration of a state of emergency made by President Jonathan in 14 local governments areas [in Yobe], which is neither here nor there in practical terms. Everybody knows that unless you declare a state-wide state of emergency, which would mean removing elected governors and replacing them with people with clear mandates to work with security agencies to restore law and order in affected states within a given period of time, not much can be achieved.<br /> <br /> <b>Hussaini Abdu:</b> Lack of capacity, especially intelligence gathering capacity, poor political will to face the challenge of dealing with criminality, the religious colouration of the situation, and the extreme politicization of the situation by the government.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="background: white; font-family: "Trebuchet MS";"><br /> <br /> <b>Hussaini Monguno</b>: The following:<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="background: white; font-family: "Trebuchet MS";"><br /> <!--[if !supportLineBreakNewLine]--><br /> <!--[endif]--><o:p></o:p></span></div><ul style="margin-top: 0in;" type="disc"><li class="MsoNormal" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo2; tab-stops: list .5in; text-align: justify;"><span style="background: white; font-family: "Trebuchet MS";">Weak and heavily compromised political leadership;<o:p></o:p></span></li> <li class="MsoNormal" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo2; tab-stops: list .5in; text-align: justify;"><span style="background: white; font-family: "Trebuchet MS";">The inability of the federal government to detach itself from the exploitation of sectional, sectarian, ethnic [interests];<o:p></o:p></span></li> <li class="MsoNormal" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo2; tab-stops: list .5in; text-align: justify;"><span style="background: white; font-family: "Trebuchet MS";">Inability of the federal government to reverse itself having already tagged the problem a national security threat that should be wiped out;<o:p></o:p></span></li> <li class="MsoNormal" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo2; tab-stops: list .5in; text-align: justify;"><span style="background: white; font-family: "Trebuchet MS";">Difficulty in breaking free from the beneficiaries of this standoff, i.e. the leaders of the security arms of government, security equipment suppliers, agents and contractors;<o:p></o:p></span></li> <li class="MsoNormal" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo2; tab-stops: list .5in; text-align: justify;"><span style="background: white; font-family: "Trebuchet MS";">The reluctance of the federal authorities to bring the former <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:placename w:st="on">Borno</st1:placename> <st1:placetype w:st="on">State</st1:placetype></st1:place> governor, Ali Modu Sheriff, to account for his misrule.<o:p></o:p></span></li> </ul></div>

Analysis: What can be done about Nigeria’s Boko Haram militants?

Photo:  Obinna Anyadike/IRIN A church in  Maiduguri , one of 11 that have been attacked in the city since 2009 NAIROBI (IRIN) - As bom...

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